BoJ (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ryozo Himino, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 (politika faizini y\u00fckseltmeyi) de\u011ferlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ancak zamanlama ve h\u0131z\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n Japonya ekonomisini ve enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Meclisteki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi ve k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde BoJ\u2019nin temel tahminlerinin h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fi riskine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Himino ayr\u0131ca, Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) getirileri 1996\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, para politikas\u0131ndaki gev\u015femenin (piyasaya bol para verme politikas\u0131n\u0131n) BoJ\u2019nin enflasyonu kontrol etme duru\u015funa olan piyasa g\u00fcvenini koruyacak uygun bir h\u0131zda ayarlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtti. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, BoJ yetkililerinden gelen daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) tonun devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde oldu ve BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re piyasada haziranda ad\u0131m at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 yetkililerinin net bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi sinyali vermesiyle, 14 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131klanan Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak hesaplanan t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) may\u0131sta %2,8 geldi; %2,6 olan beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Bu da \u201c\u00e7ok gev\u015fek\u201d para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faizin uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 sona yakla\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re en do\u011frudan ad\u0131m, Japon faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine g\u00f6re pozisyon almak. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirisi %1,15\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve daha da artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu nedenle JGB vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefi) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu i\u015flem, piyasan\u0131n daha sert bir merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015funa uyumunu do\u011frudan yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d ton, son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131f olan yeni de destekleyebilir. USD\/JPY paritesinde \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131r ve yeni daha cazip hale getirebilir. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en swap t\u00fcrevi) art\u0131k gelecek ay faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, d\u00f6viz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti genelde hisseler i\u00e7in olumsuzdur. Bu y\u00fczden Nikkei 225\u2019te daha temkinliyiz. Endekste put opsiyonu almak gibi koruma stratejileri, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Faiz ayarlamas\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na dair belirsizlik, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131) art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Himino\u2019dan \u015fahin mesaj: Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 masada, zamanlama Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji\/enflasyon risklerine ba\u011fl\u0131. Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,8. Piyasada Haziran art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %70+; JGB getirileri y\u00fckselebilir, yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir, Nikkei bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47413\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}