Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zla bitece\u011fine dair beklentileri zay\u0131flatan ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyine y\u00f6nelik yenilenen ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 ve Petrol\u2019\u00fcn toparlanmas\u0131yla Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Metal, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.580 dolardaki zirveden d\u00fc\u015ferek 4.525 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda deniz may\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6\u015fedi\u011fi iddia edilen \u0130ran botlar\u0131 ile f\u00fcze mevzilerini hedef alan \u201csavunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u201d yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ise \u0130ran hava sahas\u0131na girdi\u011fini belirtti\u011fi bir ABD MQ-9 Reaper \u0130HA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, IRIB\u2019in aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada ABD\u2019yi H\u00fcrm\u00fczgan\u2019da ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmekle su\u00e7lad\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de faiz beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi de Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. Petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fi, ABD\u2019de enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatarak enflasyonun ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) y\u00fczde 2 hedefinden uzak kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Piyasalar, CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k\u2019ta Fed\u2019in 25 baz puan (y\u00fczde 0,25) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 40 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc PCE (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131) enflasyon raporu ve May\u0131s Conference Board t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi izlenecek. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde XAU\/USD, 50 ve 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama; fiyat\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131) alt\u0131nda. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 44 civar\u0131nda, ADX (trend g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) 18\u2019e yak\u0131n. Diren\u00e7 4.544 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 4.608 ve 4.800 dolar; destek 4.500 ve 4.350 dolar seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki yeni askeri hamleler ABD Dolar\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, alt\u0131n zorlan\u0131yor. Bu tablo alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz bir etki yaratarak fiyat\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.580 dolar zirvesinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik iyimserlik azal\u0131yor; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 temkinli tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadelesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en ay \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u00fczde 3,1 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczde 2 hedeften uzak. Bu durum Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak CME FedWatch arac\u0131, bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 15\u2019e indiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n yatay veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanabilecek stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 4.500 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla (strike; opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) almak, ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik net bir pozisyon sunar. Yatay bir piyasa bekleyenler i\u00e7in 4.608 dolar direncinin \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan; \u015fu an k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) satmak, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n tablo h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilir; gerilimin artmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6nelimi (riskli varl\u0131klardan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f) tetikleyerek alt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu nedenle bear call spread gibi (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda iki al\u0131m opsiyonunu al-sat yaparak riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) daha kontroll\u00fc yap\u0131lar, ani fiyat d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
4.500 dolar seviyesi kritik destek olarak izleniyor; bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde alt\u0131na inilmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini teyit eder. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan 99,5 seviyesindeki zay\u0131f Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisi de olumsuz alg\u0131y\u0131 besliyor. 4.544 dolardaki 50 d\u00f6nemlik hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamayan y\u00fckseli\u015fler, yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda alarm zilleri: \u0130ran gerilimi, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve 95 dolar \u00fcst\u00fc petrol XAU\/USD\u2019yi 4.580\u2019den 4.525\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k\u2019ta 25 bp art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40; 4.500 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47411\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}