BP, ekim ay\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00f6netim kurulu ba\u015fkan\u0131 olan Albert Manifold\u2019un g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan FTSE 100\u2019\u00fcn en alt s\u0131ralar\u0131na geriledi. \u015eirket, davran\u0131\u015f, denetim ve kurumsal y\u00f6netim standartlar\u0131yla ilgili ciddi endi\u015feleri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi; ancak iddia edilen ihlallerin ne oldu\u011fu ve ne zaman ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ayr\u0131nt\u0131 vermedi. Hisseler ilk etapta %9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan kayb\u0131n\u0131 %5\u2019in biraz \u00fczerine kadar toparlad\u0131. Ayr\u0131l\u0131k, ge\u00e7en ayki hissedar isyan\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi ve BP\u2019de son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u201cdavran\u0131\u015f\u201d gerek\u00e7esiyle ya\u015fanan ikinci \u00fcst d\u00fczey ayr\u0131l\u0131k oldu; eski CEO Bernard Looney 2023\u2019te de\u011fi\u015ftirilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, ABD hisselerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye yetmedi; Wall Street vadeli i\u015flemleri a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken FTSE 100, Avrupa\u2019daki benzer endeksler gerilese de kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. Ferrari, 550 bin avroluk bir elektrikli ara\u00e7 (EV: batarya ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan otomobil) modelini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Uber, Almanya merkezli rakip Delivery Hero i\u00e7in teklif a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131ktan sonra pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 %2,5\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yatay seyretti. BP hissesi son bir ayda %9\u2019dan fazla geriledi; y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda ise \u201c\u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131\u201d ilk \u00e7eyrek i\u015flem raporunun ard\u0131ndan y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana (YTD: y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne) %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Piyasalar, olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ABD-\u0130ran ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 hassas; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in risk olu\u015fturdu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
BP\u2019nin y\u00f6netim kurulu ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ani ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, piyasada fiyatlanan belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Bunu, BP\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu (put option: hisse belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; kurumsal y\u00f6netim zafiyetinin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 artabilir. BP opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckseldi. Bu, 2025\u2019teki ilk enerji fiyat \u015fokundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyelerden biri ve sert fiyat hareketi beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse zaten geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m daha uygun olabilir. Yeni CEO Meg O\u2019Neil\u2019in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde sakinle\u015ftirmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken gerilemeden faydalanmak \u00fczere \u201cay\u0131 put spreadi\u201d (bear put spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan iki put al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla kurulan, kazan\u00e7 ve zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu sayede piyasa, stratejik y\u00f6n netle\u015fene kadar hisse kademeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sarkarsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck olas\u0131 anla\u015fma, t\u00fcm enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in kritik bir ba\u015fl\u0131k. Petrol fiyat\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131, WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde put alarak haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yoruz (WTI vadeli i\u015flem: belirli tarihte petrol alma-satma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc i\u00e7eren standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme; put, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flar). Anla\u015fman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itebilir. Bu tablo, 2015\u2019te \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 (JCPOA: \u0130ran\u2019la imzalanan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma) \u00f6ncesindeki dalgalanmaya benziyor; o d\u00f6nemde resmi a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesindeki bir ayda petrol %10\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
BP\u2019ye \u00f6zg\u00fc sorunlar\u0131 genel piyasa hareketlerinden ay\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u201cikili i\u015flem\u201d (pair trade: ayn\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde iki hissede biri uzun, di\u011feri k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak piyasa riskini azaltma) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Daha istikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir rakipte, \u00f6rne\u011fin Shell\u2019de al\u0131\u015f (long: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) yaparken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 BP\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f (short: \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 al\u0131nan hisseyi sat\u0131p fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce geri alarak kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) daha temkinli bir strateji olabilir. BP, son bir ayda FTSE 350 Oil & Gas Producers endeksinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 gerisinde kald\u0131; bu fark\u0131n daha da a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok geli\u015fme: BP\u2019de kurumsal y\u00f6netim krizi! Ba\u015fkan Manifold ayr\u0131l\u0131yor; hisse \u00f6nce %9 \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131, kay\u0131p %5\u2019e indi. Oynakl\u0131k %30+ s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; ay\u0131 put spreadi ve Shell-long\/BP-short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47410\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}