Hindistan, artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir rupi (INR) ile ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelmesiyle y\u00fckselen enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu durum, enflasyon ile d\u00f6viz kuru aras\u0131nda birbirini besleyen bir k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fc (fiyatlar artar \u2192 kur zay\u0131flar \u2192 ithalat maliyeti artar \u2192 fiyatlar daha da artar) riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), Nisan 2026\u2019da politika faizini (repo faizi: bankalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) %5,25\u2019te tutarak \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d duru\u015funu korudu. Banka, toplam 125 baz puanl\u0131k (bps: 1 baz puan = %0,01; 125 bps = %1,25) indirim sonras\u0131 enerji maliyetleri, tedarik kesintileri ve piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Politika mesajlar\u0131 da, arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 \u201csindirme\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda enflasyon beklentilerine (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki enflasyon tahmini) y\u00f6nelik tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 daha korumac\u0131 bir \u00e7izgiye kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrolde ithalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %90 oldu\u011fundan, kur hareketi petrol \u015fokunun yurt i\u00e7i fiyatlara ge\u00e7i\u015finde ana kanal haline geliyor: ithalat faturas\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor ve finansal ko\u015fullar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabiliyor (krediye eri\u015fim zorla\u015f\u0131r, bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti artar). D\u0131\u015f denge zaten bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; Nisan ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 28,4 milyar dolar oldu ve finansman riski daha fazla g\u00fcndeme geldi. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k (CAD: \u00fclkenin mal-hizmet ticareti, gelir transferleri ve yat\u0131r\u0131m gelirleri toplam dengesi) GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %2\u2019sine do\u011fru ve muhtemelen \u00fczerine geni\u015fleyebilir. Bu da sermaye giri\u015flerine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r ve kurdaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 daha sars\u0131c\u0131 hale getirir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan rupisi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artarken, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 85,50 seviyesinin \u00fczerine yeni \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bunu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 besliyor; temmuz vadeli Brent petrol kontrat\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar civar\u0131nda. Bu ortam\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kurda de\u011fer kayb\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonu t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz, faiz, emtia gibi bir \u201cdayanak varl\u0131\u011fa\u201d ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak daha kontroll\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Haziran ve temmuz vadeli USD\/INR al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirlenen fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131; zorunluluk yok) almak, rupinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle getiri hedefleyen bir y\u00f6ntem sunar. Bu opsiyonlarda y\u00fckselen ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) piyasan\u0131n sert hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti ve haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131 kritik bir d\u00f6neme\u00e7. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) enflasyonu %6,2 ile son \u00fc\u00e7 ay \u00fcst \u00fcste RBI\u2019nin %6 tolerans s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu nedenle, kuru dengelemek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali y\u00fckseliyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckselmesinden faydalanacak faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131 (interest rate swap: taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2013\u2019teki \u201ctaper tantrum\u201d d\u00f6nemine (FED\u2019in tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltma sinyali sonras\u0131 k\u00fcresel piyasalarda sert sat\u0131\u015f ve sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 dalgas\u0131) benzer bask\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde artan cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 endi\u015feleri rupide sert sat\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Nisan ay\u0131ndaki 28,4 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, d\u0131\u015f dengenin bozuldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu tarihsel benzerlik, dolar\/rupi paritesinde dolar lehine (USD uzun) pozisyonu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Kritik bir unsur da Hindistan\u2019\u0131n sundu\u011fu getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131: Hindistan ile ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 250 baz puana geriledi. Bu, Hindistan varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in daha az cazip hale getirerek sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131r. G\u00fcnl\u00fck yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 (FII: yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 fon ve b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131) giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f verilerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi, rupiye ili\u015fkin olumsuz beklentimizi teyit eder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 98 dolar, rupi 85,50\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131: Hindistan\u2019da enflasyon-kur k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. RBI n\u00f6tr kalsa da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 masada; cari a\u00e7\u0131k bask\u0131s\u0131yla USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47409\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}