BNP Paribas, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026\u2019da %0,7\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fini, 2025\u2019teki %1,4\u2019ten d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, 1\u00c7\u2019te \u00e7eyreklik bazda (q\/q: bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re) +%0,4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f beklense bile, bunun ortalama \u00e7eyreklik h\u0131z\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k +%0,1 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Banka, daha zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\/y: ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re) %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de ancak kademeli \u015fekilde %3,3\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor. Bu da enflasyonu \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) hedefinin \u00fczerinde tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planda banka, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) patikas\u0131ndan 2026\u2019da toplam 50 baz puanl\u0131k (bps: %0,50) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u0130ngiliz devlet tahvili (gilt: \u0130ngiltere Hazine tahvili) getirilerinin 2026 boyunca y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2027\u2019de ise net arz azald\u0131k\u00e7a (piyasaya yeni tahvil \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken), siyasi risk primi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n siyasi belirsizlik i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) geriledik\u00e7e ve piyasalar olas\u0131 BoE faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a %4,30\u2019a inece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda BNP Paribas, 2026 4\u00c7 itibar\u0131yla USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160\u2019a, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; her iki paritenin 2027 boyunca genel olarak yatay seyredece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle enflasyonun yeniden y\u00fckselece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum para politikas\u0131nda y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini, yani beklenen faiz indirimlerinden olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fi zorunlu k\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (derivative traders: vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde i\u015flem yapanlar) piyasaya k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek faiz ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcncellemesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l 50 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamak zorunda kalmas\u0131yla, \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (UK gilt futures: gelecekte teslim\/uzla\u015fma \u015fart\u0131yla i\u015flem g\u00f6ren tahvil s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilerin %4,3 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, stagflasyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme + y\u00fcksek enflasyon) d\u00f6nemlerinde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flayan ekonomiye ra\u011fmen faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n tahvil de\u011ferlerini bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla da uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Sterlinin dolara kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini ve 4\u00c7 itibar\u0131yla 1,35 hedefini bekliyoruz. GBP\/USD\u2019nin \u015fu anda 1,27 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu sterlin i\u00e7in belirgin bir de\u011ferlenmeye i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu harekete y\u00f6nelik olarak GBP\/USD\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun %3,6\u2019ya do\u011fru yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, \u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) son verisinde t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %2,3 olmas\u0131na k\u0131yasla belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon riskinin tekrar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, enflasyon swaplar\u0131n\u0131 (inflation swap: enflasyona endeksli nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sabit oranla takas edildi\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l ikinci bir enflasyon dalgas\u0131 ihtimalini tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BNP Paribas\u2019tan \u0130ngiltere i\u00e7in stagflasyon uyar\u0131s\u0131: 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %0,7\u2019ye inerken enflasyon %3,6\u2019ya t\u0131rmanabilir. BoE 50 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya d\u00f6nebilir; 10y gilt y\u00fcksek, GBP\/USD 1,35 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47408"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47408\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}