Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi son d\u00f6nemde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozisyon deste\u011fiyle ilerliyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki zay\u0131f i\u015flemlerin ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k -2,5 \u201cskor\u201dluk istisnai bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu, Nisan 2018\u2019den bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olarak kaydedildi ve vadesi gelen \u201cnet uzun swap\u201d pozisyonunun (swap: iki taraf\u0131n belirli bir vadede faiz\/kur ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 takas etti\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme; net uzun: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan toplam pozisyon) yenilenmemesine ba\u011fland\u0131. Bu durum, kurda hemen net bir tepki olu\u015fmasa da toplam risk alma miktar\u0131nda (net maruziyet: kur hareketlerine a\u00e7\u0131k toplam pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) sert bir azalmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ek faiz ad\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlasa da (fiyatlamak: beklentinin varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131), para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131ndan emin de\u011fil. Mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen para birimi genel olarak dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131; ancak nisan sonu ve may\u0131s ortas\u0131ndaki toparlanma denemeleri kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. ABD faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde vites y\u00fckseltirse, risk i\u015ftah\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 G10 para birimleri (G10: geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri) zorlanabilir. NZD\u2019nin \u201ccarry\u201d getirisi (carry: y\u00fcksek faizli para birimini tutup faiz fark\u0131ndan gelir elde etme) tarihsel d\u00fczeylerin belirgin alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; b\u00fcy\u00fcme riskleri s\u00fcrerse uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
RBNZ karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olduk\u00e7a zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en haftaki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u2014Nisan 2018\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fckse\u011fi\u2014yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uzun swap pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yenilememesinden kaynaklanmas\u0131, para biriminde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentilerin azalmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa bu y\u0131l ek RBNZ faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak teredd\u00fct art\u0131yor. Yeni veriler, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019sinin (GSYH: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) son \u00e7eyrekte %0,1 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. RBNZ\u2019den temkinli bir mesaj gelmesi, mevcut \u201cuzun NZD\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131nda (uzun pozisyon: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan i\u015flem) sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ana kayg\u0131s\u0131 giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski oluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm fark\u0131yla da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da enflasyon (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %2,9\u2019a gerileyerek so\u011fuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek PCE (\u00e7ekirdek PCE: g\u0131da ve enerjiyi d\u0131\u015flayan, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,2 ile y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor ve Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu politika fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131na k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca NZD\u2019yi faiz avantaj\u0131 (carry) i\u00e7in elde tutman\u0131n cazibesi ge\u00e7mi\u015fe g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f. Tarihsel olarak RBNZ\u2019nin ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re faiz \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc (faiz fark\u0131\/spread: iki \u00fclke faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) daha geni\u015fti ve risk kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha iyi bir getiri sunuyordu. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc dar fark, k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131 bozulursa kay\u0131plara kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 koruma sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda NZD\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. NZD\/USD \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu almak (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; opsiyon: belirli tarihe kadar hak tan\u0131yan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften, riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak yararlanman\u0131n net bir yolu. \u00d6zellikle RBNZ \u201cbeklemeye ge\u00e7me\u201d sinyali verirse (pause: faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ara verme), bu strateji daha anlaml\u0131 olur. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, son y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 da koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBNZ \u00f6ncesi NZD\u2019de alarm: 2018\u2019den beri en sert \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f uzun swap yenilenmemesine ba\u011fland\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcme daral\u0131yor, carry zay\u0131f, Fed daha \u015fahin. NZD\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47407\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}