USD\/CHF Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. ABD dolar\u0131, yeniden alevlenen ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle (jeopolitik risk) destek bulurken, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Parite 0,7850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,30 art\u0131da tamamlayarak d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini bitirdi. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda deniz may\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6\u015femeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edilen botlar ve f\u00fcze tesislerini hedef alan \u201csavunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u201d d\u00fczenledi. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ise, \u0130ran hava sahas\u0131na girdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fi bir ABD MQ-9 Reaper \u0130HA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Diplomatik temaslar s\u00fcrerken, ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201cbirka\u00e7 g\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201ca\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini\u201d vurgulad\u0131. Deniz yolu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131na jeopolitik risk primi (belirsizlik kaynakl\u0131 ek fiyat) ekliyor ve k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana ABD\u2019de enflasyon h\u0131zland\u0131; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ve piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini y\u00fckseltti. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon nisan ay\u0131nda 16 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131ksa da, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) %0-%2 hedef band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Piyasada SNB\u2019nin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri k\u0131smen frang\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyriyle dengelenirken, gerekirse piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etme iste\u011finin \u201cy\u00fcksek\u201d oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediliyor. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisi, \u00c7ar\u015famba \u0130svi\u00e7re ZEW beklentileri (ekonomik beklenti anketi) ve Per\u015fembe ABD PCE enflasyonu (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi) izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Yenilenen jeopolitik gerilimlerle birlikte, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d \u00f6zelli\u011finin (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF\u2019te y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. USD\/CHF\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, beklenen yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, VIX endeksiyle (piyasa korku g\u00f6stergesi) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, ge\u00e7en hafta 13 olan seviyeden 18\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu artan belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortamda, fiyat\u0131n sert hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler daha cazip hale geliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin uzun straddle (hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanma) \u00f6zellikle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik ABD enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. PCE verisinin 2,7% civar\u0131ndaki son e\u011filimin \u00fczerinde gelmesi, Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde peki\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130svi\u00e7re merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma belirginle\u015fiyor; bu durumun paritedeki ana etken oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n gelecek faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %40 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %15\u2019ti. \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu %1,4\u2019te kal\u0131rken, SNB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in (faiz art\u0131rmak gibi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7esi bulunmuyor; bu da frang\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na benziyor; tarihsel olarak bu d\u00f6nemler ABD dolar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Brent petrol arz endi\u015feleriyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, bunun ABD enflasyonunu daha da beslemesi bekleniyor. Bu da Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi t\u0131rman\u0131yor: USD\/CHF d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bitirip 0,7850\u2019de %0,30 y\u00fckseldi. Petrol 95$ \u00fcst\u00fc, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 Fed\u2019i daha \u015fahin k\u0131l\u0131yor; SNB sabit kalabilir. PCE ve g\u00fcven verileri izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47403\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}