Deutsche Bank, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan ay\u0131 ABD ki\u015fisel gelir ve harcama raporuna odaklan\u0131yor. Bu raporda, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) en \u00e7ok takip etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan \u00e7ekirdek PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) yer al\u0131yor. Banka, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 artmas\u0131n\u0131 ve Mart ile ayn\u0131 seviyede gelmesini bekliyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131n ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n son \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz indirimi yerine s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu savunan) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n da k\u0131sa vadeli politika tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 verideki b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/aktivite taraf\u0131nda Deutsche Bank, Mart\u2019taki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan so\u011fuma bekliyor. Ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketimde (hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131) ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131, ki\u015fisel gelirin (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n maa\u015f ve di\u011fer gelirleri) ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 artmas\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ki\u015fisel gelir ve harcama raporunu haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli verisi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklentimiz, \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k +%0,3 gelmesi; yani fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131. Bu durum Fed\u2019i zor bir konumda b\u0131rak\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son verilerle de destekleniyor. Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini g\u00f6sterir) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 ile beklentiden y\u00fcksek geldi. Buna g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 da ekleniyor: Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 225 binin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu nedenle Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi i\u00e7in acil bir gerek\u00e7esi yok. Waller\u2019\u0131n son \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131 da bu temkinli duru\u015fu teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm nedeniyle, \u00f6zellikle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde (faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu, faize duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klarda put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan\/spek\u00fclasyon ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon) almak veya getirilerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131 kurmak olabilir.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretmesi, piyasalar\u0131n faiz indirimi beklentilerini \u00f6telemesine ve tahvil getirilerinin s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, yakla\u015fan PCE verisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerine duyarl\u0131 g\u00f6sterge) yeniden zirvelerini test edebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da Fed\u2019in zaten yeterince \u201csigorta\u201d ama\u00e7l\u0131 indirim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ilave gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) i\u00e7in e\u015fi\u011fin art\u0131k \u00e7ok y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik Per\u015fembe verisine kilitlenin: Deutsche Bank, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,3 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131n\u0131, t\u00fcketimin so\u011fumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u015eahin Waller etkisiyle \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131, oynakl\u0131k ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiride zirve testi g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47402"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47402\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}