Sterlin, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,25 d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3470 seviyesine geriledi. Bu hareket, \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili (gilt: \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131d\u0131) getirileri (tahvil faizi) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in geldi. Getirilerdeki gerileme, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) k\u0131sa vadede faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve Sterlin\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u0130ngiltere gilt getirisi, erken kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc telafi etmesine ra\u011fmen Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,86 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Seans\u0131n erken saatlerinde g\u00f6sterge getiri %4,82\u2019ye inerek bir ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Sterlin\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130ngiltere gilt getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn do\u011frudan sonucu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n BoE\u2019den yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklemedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin %4,82 ile ayl\u0131k dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rmesi bu alg\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimini teyit ediyor. Bu tablo, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Sterlin\u2019in daha da zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan son \u0130ngiltere verileri de destekliyor. Nisan enflasyonu beklentiden h\u0131zl\u0131 yava\u015flayarak %2,3\u2019e indi ve BoE\u2019nin %2 hedeflerine daha da yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonominin yaln\u0131zca %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc do\u011fruland\u0131. Bu veriler, merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, GBP\/USD paritesinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle temmuz vadeli (expiration: vade biti\u015f tarihi) ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike price: opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi sabit fiyat) 1,3350 civar\u0131nda olan kontratlar hedefleniyor. Bu strateji, Sterlin\u2019de olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken en y\u00fcksek zarar\u0131 (maksimum risk) ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Mevcut ko\u015fullar, paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri test etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin aleyhine g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD ile para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi sinyali vermiyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirileri (Treasury: ABD devlet tahvili) yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,6 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duruyor; bu seviye \u0130ngiltere giltlerine g\u00f6re daha cazip getiri sunarak sermayeyi dolara y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Bu faiz fark\u0131, GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz temel bir etken.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, BoE\u2019nin Fed\u2019e g\u00f6re daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) kalan ABD \u00e7izgisinden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde\u20142022\u2019nin baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinde oldu\u011fu gibi\u2014Sterlin\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da pozisyonlar\u0131 daha erken kurmay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu kurgu, Sterlin i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\u2019de alarm zilleri: Gilt getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini s\u00f6nd\u00fcrd\u00fc, GBP\/USD 1,3470\u2019a indi. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve getiri fark\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken 1,3350 strike put opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47400","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47400"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47400\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47400"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47400"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47400"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}