{"id":47397,"date":"2026-05-26T16:19:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T16:19:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rbnznin-enflasyon-yanliligi-nzd-usdyi-odakta-tutarken-faizleri-sabit-tutmasi-bekleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T16:19:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T16:19:04","slug":"rbnznin-enflasyon-yanliligi-nzd-usdyi-odakta-tutarken-faizleri-sabit-tutmasi-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rbnznin-enflasyon-yanliligi-nzd-usdyi-odakta-tutarken-faizleri-sabit-tutmasi-bekleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"RBNZ\u2019nin Enflasyon Yanl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 NZD\/USD\u2019yi Odakta Tutarken Faizleri Sabit Tutmas\u0131 Bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) 27 May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek **Resmi Nakit Faizi\u2019ni (Official Cash Rate &#8211; OCR: bankalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lanma faizi, \u00fclkedeki k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin ana referans\u0131)** **%2,25** seviyesinde tutmas\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Politika e\u011filimi, Yeni Zelanda\u2019da **GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) zay\u0131f** ve **i\u015fsizlik y\u00fcksek** olsa da **enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131** etraf\u0131nda \u015fekilleniyor. Bu nedenle as\u0131l odak, faiz karar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok **ton (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n mesaj\u0131 ve y\u00f6nlendirmesi)** olacak.<\/p>\n<p>**Gecelik endeks swap\u0131 (OIS: piyasada \u201cgecelik faiz\u201d \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan takas s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n gelecekteki faiz beklentisini g\u00f6sterir)** fiyatlamas\u0131, **8 Temmuz** toplant\u0131s\u0131nda **25 baz puanl\u0131k** (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 25 baz puan = 0,25 puan) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 **%51,5** olarak ima ediyor. May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha erken bir hamle ihtimali de masada. D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda **NZD\/USD (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131\/ABD dolar\u0131)** paritesi, y\u0131l i\u00e7indeki **0,57\u20130,61** band\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izleniyor. Paritenin bu band\u0131n \u00fcst yar\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi, RBNZ\u2019nin duru\u015funa ve **ABD dolar\u0131nda \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebindeki** (g\u00fcvenli liman: belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi para birimi\/varl\u0131k) olas\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fime ba\u011fl\u0131. Buna, **olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131** ve **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131** ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 geli\u015fmeler de dahil.<\/p>\n<h3>Enflasyon Endi\u015feleri RBNZ Toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131k\u0131yor<\/h3>\n<p>Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 yar\u0131n toplan\u0131rken, faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ancak zay\u0131f ekonomiye ra\u011fmen enflasyona daha fazla odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da enflasyon son a\u00e7\u0131klamada **%4,0** geldi; bu oran h\u00e2l\u00e2 bankan\u0131n hedefinin iki kat\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu destekliyor. Bu tablo, ekonominin ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte **%0,1 daralmas\u0131na** ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin **%4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesine** ra\u011fmen ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasa, temmuza kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse **%50** seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor; kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon verileri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor: RBNZ\u2019nin yar\u0131n **\u015fahin** (\u015fahin: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma\/artan faiz sinyali) bir dil kullanmas\u0131, Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir. **NZD\/USD** i\u00e7in, son d\u00f6nemdeki **0,57\u20130,61** band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 test etmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RBNZ 27 May\u0131s\u2019ta OCR\u2019yi %2,25\u2019te tutmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131n %4 enflasyon tonu belirleyecek. OIS temmuzda +25 bp i\u00e7in %51,5; \u015fahin mesaj NZD\/USD\u2019yi 0,61\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47397\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}