{"id":47394,"date":"2026-05-26T15:21:32","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T15:21:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-faiz-farkinin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-bant-araligini-koruyor-15925in-kirilmasi-15965-hedefini-gundeme-getiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T15:21:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T15:21:32","slug":"usd-jpy-faiz-farkinin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-bant-araligini-koruyor-15925in-kirilmasi-15965-hedefini-gundeme-getiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-faiz-farkinin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-bant-araligini-koruyor-15925in-kirilmasi-15965-hedefini-gundeme-getiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Faiz Fark\u0131n\u0131n Dolar\u0131 Desteklemesiyle Bant Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Koruyor; 159,25\u2019in K\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 159,65 Hedefini G\u00fcndeme Getiriyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY, daha \u00f6nce 158,70\u2019in test edilece\u011fi beklentisine ra\u011fmen 158,74\u2019e geriledi. Ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f devam etmedi ve parite yatay seyre ge\u00e7ti. K\u0131sa vadeli momentum (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergeler) yatay olarak de\u011ferlendirildi. Bu da i\u015flemlerin bant i\u00e7inde s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Olas\u0131 bant 158,75\u2013159,20 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 158,40 olarak konuldu ve bu seviye test edilmedi.<\/p>\n<p>1\u20133 haftal\u0131k vadede, 158,40 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm korunuyor. Ancak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin (y\u00fckseli\u015fin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. 159,25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k (k\u0131r\u0131lma sonras\u0131 fiyat\u0131n orada tutunmas\u0131) sa\u011flanmas\u0131, 159,65\u2019e do\u011fru hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Orta vadede ise paritenin yeni zirveler g\u00f6rme alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu, ancak 2024 zirvesi 162,00\u2019in zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedi\u011fi ifade edildi. \u00d6nceki referans 21 May\u0131s\u2019ta 158,85 spot seviyesiydi.<\/p>\n<h3>USD\/JPY \u0130\u00e7in Etkenler ve G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftada ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyoruz; ancak parite \u015fu an bekleme modunda. Temel etken faiz fark\u0131 (ABD ve Japonya faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark). Nisan ay\u0131 ABD enflasyonu %3,1 geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) temkinli kal\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son GSYH verisi (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimini g\u00f6steren b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi) hafif daralmaya i\u015faret etti; bu da Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz, destekleyici politika e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temkinli y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini opsiyonlarla (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ifade etmek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin al\u0131m spreadi (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti azaltan ve kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlan\u0131rken 158,40 deste\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar. 159,25 \u00fczerindeki net hareket, 159,65\u2019e do\u011fru yeni aya\u011f\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n<h3>Riskler, Oynakl\u0131k ve Stratejik Korunma<\/h3>\n<p>Ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler de dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Yen\u2019in 2022 ve 2024\u2019te belirgin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri (d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na resmi al\u0131m\/sat\u0131mla y\u00f6n verme) s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, piyasada tedirginlik yarat\u0131yor ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yak\u0131n vadeli opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de ani ve keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, resmi ad\u0131m ihtimaline i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle yen riski olanlar i\u00e7in korunma (hedging: olumsuz fiyat hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleme) uygun olabilir. 158,40 deste\u011finin alt\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money put: mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131) almak, ani d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir koruma sa\u011flayabilir. 158,40 seviyesi kritik e\u015fik; bunun alt\u0131na inilmesi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc pozitiften n\u00f6tre \u00e7evirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY 158,74\u2019te yatay: bant 158,75\u2013159,20, kritik destek 158,40. \u00dcstte 159,25 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 159,65 hedef. Faiz fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 desteklerken m\u00fcdahale riski oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor; opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47394"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47394\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}