EUR\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci g\u00fcnde de yatay seyretti. Parite 1,1645 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve 1,1624\u2019ten tepki verdikten sonra 1,1650 \u00fczerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi kal\u0131c\u0131 yapamad\u0131. Piyasalarda risk i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan daha net bir y\u00f6n sinyali bekliyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyindeki askeri hedeflere y\u00f6nelik yeni ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan hava bozulurken, Tahran ve Washington sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir teklif \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu tablo, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na katk\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da ECB Ba\u015fekonomisti Philippe Lane, piyasan\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131ndan memnun oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7en dolayl\u0131 etkiler (\u00f6rne\u011fin enerji maliyetlerinin di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131) oldu\u011funa da i\u015faret etti. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, Haziran veya Temmuz\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde ABD\u2019de Conference Board May\u0131s T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni raporu ve Dallas Fed \u0130malat \u0130\u015f Anketi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Ancak as\u0131l odak, Fed\u2019in faiz rotas\u0131na dair ipucu vermesi beklenen Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nde.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019de birbirine z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler etkili oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n, jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle 1,1650 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc belirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD dolar\u0131 genelde g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu ortamda para birimlerini normalde hareket ettiren temel etkenlerin (faiz beklentileri, b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc gibi) yerini \u201colay riski\u201d (tek bir geli\u015fmenin fiyat\u0131 sert oynatabilme riski) al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131nda kritik olan belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren 1 ayl\u0131k \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck dalgalanma\u201d (implied volatility: piyasadaki opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) EUR\/USD\u2019de bu ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %6,5 seviyesinden %8,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sert bir hareket ihtimaline haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almay\u0131 hedefleyen \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi stratejiler avantajl\u0131 olabilir. (Straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak kurun hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, sert hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan yap\u0131.) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda durum k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kma riski, bu oynakl\u0131k ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n giderek daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir tona ge\u00e7mesi (\u015fahin: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faizleri savunan duru\u015f) Euro\u2019ya destek veriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz piyasas\u0131, Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin 25 baz puanl\u0131k (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 25 baz puan = %0,25) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 civar\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu da Euro\u2019da belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Fed\u2019in daha temkinli kalmas\u0131 ihtimaliyle olu\u015fan bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Euro\u2019yu temel tarafta destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD PCE verisi (PCE: Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat g\u00f6stergesi; Fed\u2019in en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerinden biri). Beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi, Fed\u2019in daha agresif davranaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bahisleri canland\u0131rabilir; bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip mevcut yatay band\u0131 k\u0131rabilir. Sonu\u00e7 iki u\u00e7lu olabildi\u011fi (veri iyi gelirse bir y\u00f6nde, k\u00f6t\u00fc gelirse di\u011fer y\u00f6nde sert hareket) i\u00e7in, veri sonras\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda, PCE verisi g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar net bir y\u00f6n pozisyonu almak konusunda temkinliyiz. Parite son yedi seansta dar bir 130 pip\u2019lik bantta kald\u0131. (Pip: d\u00f6viz paritelerinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; EUR\/USD\u2019de genelde 0,0001.) Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma, sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimalinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eimdilik, ya sert harekete ya da band\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine duyarl\u0131 stratejiler daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1,1600 seviyesinden uzak \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak (out-of-the-money: mevcut kurun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan, hemen kullan\u0131l\u0131nca k\u00e2r sa\u011flamayan opsiyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; ancak riskin dikkatle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,1645\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: jeopolitik risk 1,1650\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131rtm\u0131yor. \u0130ma edilen volatilite %8,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ECB \u015fahin, Fed sinyali PCE\u2019de. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47392"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47392\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}