Brent petrol, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerle sert dalgaland\u0131. Sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek bir anla\u015fma umudu, fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na itti. Brent, ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 103,54 dolar\/varil seviyesinde kapatt\u0131; haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flemlerinde 97,87 dolar\/varile kadar gerileyerek cuma kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re %5,48 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 96,02 dolar\u0131 da g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ancak ABD ve \u0130srail jetlerinin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma noktalar\u0131 ile may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan teknelere yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fine dair haberler sonras\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
Hafta genelinde Brent %5,24 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 103,54 dolar\/varile inerken, WTI %8,37 gerileyerek 96,60 dolar\/varile d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Petroldeki hareket, stagflasyon (b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f, enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nem) endi\u015felerinin azalmas\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerinin yumu\u015famas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi. Piyasalar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131na petrol \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ana ge\u00e7idi) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi ihtimalini fiyatlad\u0131. Bu beklenti, Atlantik\u2019in iki yakas\u0131nda (ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da) tahvillere ve hisse senetlerine destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Diplomatik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda bir anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederken Brent petrol sert geriledi. Fiyatlar\u0131n 103 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden 98 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inip \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, piyasay\u0131 \u201cjeopolitik risk primi\u201dnin (sava\u015f\/gerilim gibi riskler nedeniyle fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin h\u0131zlan\u0131p yava\u015flamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine kar\u015f\u0131n, arz-talep verileri (temel piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131) fiyatlar\u0131 destekliyor. Son EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) raporuna g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de ham petrol stoklar\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta beklentilerin aksine 2,1 milyon varil azald\u0131. Stok azalmas\u0131, talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Bu s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k, fiyatlarda bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve jeopolitik haberlerle veriler aras\u0131nda \u00e7eki\u015fme yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu sert hareketleri fiyatl\u0131yor. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) yakla\u015f\u0131k 42 seviyesinde ve uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde. \u201cZ\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda as\u0131l konu y\u00f6n tahmini de\u011fil, dalgalanmadan yararlanacak \u015fekilde pozisyon almak.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Temmuz vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte almak) almak; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 halinde sert y\u00fckseli\u015ften, anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler. B\u00f6ylece piyasadaki belirsizli\u011fin opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan seviyesine do\u011frudan oynanm\u0131\u015f olur.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f belirtmek isteyen ama riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak isteyenler i\u00e7in \u201cdikey spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki opsiyonla kurulan, risk ve getirisi ba\u015ftan daha net olan strateji) daha uygun olabilir. \u201cBull call spread\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle iki al\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan yap\u0131) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek y\u00fckseli\u015fi hedefler. \u201cBear put spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle iki sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan yap\u0131) ise bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n netle\u015fmesi halinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar. Bu yap\u0131lar, risk-getiri aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha kontroll\u00fc k\u0131lar; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n Brent\u2019te sert sars\u0131nt\u0131: \u0130ran hatt\u0131nda anla\u015fma umudu fiyat\u0131 100 dolar alt\u0131na itti; sald\u0131r\u0131 haberleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Risk primi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz beklentisi ve y\u00fcksek OVX opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47391","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47391"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47391\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}