\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u0130ran hava sahas\u0131na giren d\u00fc\u015fmanca u\u00e7aklar\u0131 tespit etti\u011fini ve bir MQ-9 insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131n\u0131 (silahl\u0131 ke\u015fif ama\u00e7l\u0131 uzun menzilli \u0130HA) durdurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
IRGC\u2019nin g\u00fcncellemesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert toparland\u0131. Bu hareket, finansal piyasalarda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 durdurma anla\u015fmas\u0131) kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u015f\u00fcphelerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6sterge fiyat\u0131) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 91,67 dolarla zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131nda jeopolitik risk primi (belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata eklenen \u201crisk pay\u0131\u201d) yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. MQ-9\u2019un d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi \u00f6nemli bir gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve WTI\u2019\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden arz kesintisi (petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n aksamas\u0131) riskini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olmayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IEA) Nisan 2026 raporlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel arz-talep dengesinin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (piyasada \u201cfazla\u201d petrol\u00fcn azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131) ve \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 alan\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten vurguluyordu.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme sonras\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in ham petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde (vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli WTI opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Petrol\u00fcn VIX benzeri g\u00f6stergesi olan OVX (petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksi) bu sabah yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 artarak 45,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum do\u011frudan al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in \u201ccall spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyattan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek fiyattan call satma) tercih ediyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin Temmuz 95 dolar call al\u0131p 105 dolar call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken anlaml\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini korumak gibi.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2019\u2019da Suudi Aramco tesislerine y\u00f6nelik drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 Brent petrolde (k\u00fcresel g\u00f6sterge ham petrol) gece i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %15\u2019lik bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00fcretimin h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131yla k\u0131sa s\u00fcrse de, mevcut gerilim daha kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve do\u011frudan b\u00fcy\u00fck devlet akt\u00f6rlerini i\u00e7eriyor. Piyasa, Brent\u2019in 2022 ortas\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yor; taraflardan gelen s\u00f6ylem h\u0131zla yumu\u015famazsa 100 dolar seviyesine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimali bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yaln\u0131zca petrol hik\u00e2yesi de\u011fil; daha geni\u015f piyasa etkileri var ve buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: olumsuz fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon) gerekiyor. Petrol\u00fcn 95 dolar \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirebilir ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) son \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine daha gev\u015fek politika sinyali) zorla\u015ft\u0131rarak hisse senetleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu nedenle VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve artan yak\u0131t maliyetlerine en hassas alanlardan olan havayolu ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ETF\u2019lerinde (borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Brent-WTI fark\u0131n\u0131 (spread: iki g\u00f6sterge fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark) izliyoruz; haberle birlikte fark 1 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde geni\u015fleyerek 5,50 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Brent, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz kesintilerine daha duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu fark\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u00fcksek gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 7-8 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011fru daha da a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, her iki g\u00f6stergeye ait kontratlarda pozisyon alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in g\u00f6reli de\u011fer f\u0131rsat\u0131 (iki \u00fcr\u00fcn aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131ndan yararlanma) yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok geli\u015fme: IRGC\u2019nin MQ-9\u2019u durdurmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 petrol sert y\u00fckseldi, WTI 91,67 dolar\u0131 test etti. OVX %20 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; call pahal\u0131, call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Brent-WTI fark\u0131 5,50 dolara a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47385"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47385\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}