{"id":47383,"date":"2026-05-26T12:49:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T12:49:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dolarin-guclenmesi-ve-sahin-fed-beklentileri-baskisiyla-altin-4-580-dolarin-altinda-tutunmakta-zorlaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T12:49:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T12:49:18","slug":"dolarin-guclenmesi-ve-sahin-fed-beklentileri-baskisiyla-altin-4-580-dolarin-altinda-tutunmakta-zorlaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolarin-guclenmesi-ve-sahin-fed-beklentileri-baskisiyla-altin-4-580-dolarin-altinda-tutunmakta-zorlaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar\u0131n G\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve \u015eahin Fed Beklentileri Bask\u0131s\u0131yla Alt\u0131n 4.580 Dolar\u0131n Alt\u0131nda Tutunmakta Zorlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti ve yeniden artan ABD Dolar\u0131 talebiyle 4.580 dolar seviyesini yine a\u015famad\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran olas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyallerin ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik belirsizlik, g\u00fcvenli liman (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) talebini canl\u0131 tuttu. Ham petroldeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanma da enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015felerini yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirdi. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) duru\u015f beklentisini destekleyerek faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. CME Group FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemlerden piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge), piyasalar\u0131n 2026\u2019da en az bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Komutanl\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 haberlerde, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d kapsam\u0131nda sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fi; f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma noktalar\u0131 ile may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen botlar\u0131n hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim s\u00fcrerken, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki sevkiyat\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 fiilen durdurdu. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukas\u0131 da petrol\u00fcn iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparlanmas\u0131na katk\u0131 verdi. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 4 saatlik grafikte 100 periyotluk \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Diren\u00e7 4.580 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 4.593,73 dolarda. MACD (momentum\/trend g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc izleyen g\u00f6sterge) pozitif kal\u0131rken RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m bas\u0131nc\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 47 civar\u0131nda. Destek 4.490-4.485 ve 4.450 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde; per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ve GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck) verileri \u00f6ncesinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n<h3>Temel G\u00f6stergeler ve Jeopolitik, D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Beklentisini Destekliyor<\/h3>\n<p>Alt\u0131nda mevcut bask\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi; dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Jeopolitik gerilim ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimaliyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 ana etken. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) son iki haftada %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi ve 106,20 civar\u0131nda; bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor ve bu da enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini aksatmas\u0131yla WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye marttan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Benzer enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Fed\u2019i daha sert ad\u0131mlar (daha h\u0131zl\u0131\/y\u00fcksek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) atmaya zorlad\u0131; bu senaryonun yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<h3>Alt\u0131nda Olas\u0131 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe Y\u00f6nelik T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n<p>Piyasa, Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgiye kayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; bu durum alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 olumsuz etkiler. CME FedWatch, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %40\u2019t\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE enflasyon verisini, bu beklentileri netle\u015ftirip alt\u0131nda yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilecek \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r (fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla hareket ettirebilecek geli\u015fme) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 4.580 direncini a\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131yor. \u0130ran gerilimi petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekip enflasyon korkusunu besliyor; PCE kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47383\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}