TD Securities stratejistleri, ABD\u2019den gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler ve yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelen \u201cABD\u2019nin istisnai g\u00fcc\u00fc\u201d s\u00f6yleminin 2026 i\u00e7in ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) y\u00f6nelik negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinden vazge\u00e7irmeye yetmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019nin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na g\u00f6re performans \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn ancak orta d\u00fczeyde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken ekip, enerji kaynakl\u0131 man\u015fet enflasyon \u015fokunun (man\u015fet enflasyon: g\u0131da ve enerji dahil genel enflasyon) \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona (\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kan\u0131t oldu\u011funu, bu nedenle uzun s\u00fcreli k\u00fcresel faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc (hiking cycle: pe\u015f pe\u015fe faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 d\u00f6nemi) hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karacak bir tablo g\u00f6rmediklerini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Ekip, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) gev\u015feme e\u011filimini (easing bias: ileride faiz indirme e\u011filimi) geriye \u00e7ekse bile faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve piyasalar\u0131n tam kapsaml\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 (full hikes: birden fazla art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tam fiyatlama) \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Stratejistler ayr\u0131ca, 2026 verileri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 gerektirse bile Fed\u2019in 2022\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131ndan daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faizden yana) davranabilece\u011fini hen\u00fcz g\u00f6stermedi\u011fini savunuyor. ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme korunurken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanma ihtimaline ba\u011fl\u0131 risk priminin (risk premium: belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyatlara eklenen ekstra pay) zamanla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve ECB gibi otoritelerden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n dura\u011fan bir Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 (rate differential: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz fark\u0131) daraltmas\u0131yla, dolar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde daha da gerileyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeler.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini b\u0131rakmak i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Piyasa \u015fu anda nisan ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (non-farm payrolls: tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisinin 255 binle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi gibi ABD verilerine odaklan\u0131yor; bu da \u201cABD ekonomisi di\u011ferlerinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201d s\u00f6ylemini besliyor. Ancak bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve k\u00fcresel tabloyu g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f dolar beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar aranabilir. Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda gev\u015feme e\u011filimini geri \u00e7ekmesi olas\u0131 olsa da, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,1 seviyesinde yatay seyretmesi nedeniyle faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden fiyatlamak erken g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019in 2022\u2019deki gibi agresif art\u0131\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne girmesi yerine faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 daha olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu arada d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenenden daha iyi diren\u00e7 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, son S&P Global Euro B\u00f6lgesi bile\u015fik PMI \u00fcretim endeksi (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) 52,5 oldu; bu, Avrupa ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun ge\u00e7en ay %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) bu yaz s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n beklenen dolar gerilemesine kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla (options: belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak (out-of-the-money put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan, ancak \u015fu an \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d olan opsiyon) ve vadeyi d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe koymak maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha verimli bir strateji olabilir. B\u00f6ylece, spot piyasada (spot: anl\u0131k al\u0131m-sat\u0131m piyasas\u0131) do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyon (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli riskini almadan olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri dolar\u0131 kurtarmaya yetmedi! TD Securities, 2026\u2019da USD i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte \u0131srarc\u0131: Fed\u2019in sabit kalmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ECB\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla faiz fark\u0131 daralabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47382\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}