Avrupa hisseleri, tatil nedeniyle s\u0131\u011f (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacimli) i\u015flemlerde %1,1 y\u00fckseldi. Ekonomiye duyarl\u0131 hisseler (d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rler) defansif (daha az dalgalanan) hisseleri geride b\u0131rakt\u0131; genel hava risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu (risk-on) y\u00f6nde kald\u0131. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firket hisseleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7eklileri ge\u00e7ti; b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri (gelir\/k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek beklenen) de\u011fer hisselerinden (daha ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnen) daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi. Hareketlerde bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da etkili olurken, ge\u00e7en hafta ba\u015flayan uzun vadeli tahvil faizlerindeki (uzun vade getirileri) geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f de piyasaya ek destek verdi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de vadeli i\u015flemler (a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi g\u00f6sterge kontratlar) a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7 y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret etti. Asya borsalar\u0131 genel olarak art\u0131da seyretti; y\u00fckseli\u015fe G\u00fcney Kore Kospi \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. Kore hisseleri taraf\u0131nda SK Hynix %7 toparlan\u0131rken Samsung %3 y\u00fckseldi; bu hareket, ge\u00e7en hafta yar\u0131 iletken hisselerindeki (\u00e7ip \u00fcreticileri) k\u0131sa bir molan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetlerinde risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunda, ge\u00e7en hafta ba\u015flayan uzun vadeli tahvil faizlerindeki belirgin geri \u00e7ekilme etkili. Bu ortam; d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hisseleri, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerini, defansif tercihlere g\u00f6re daha avantajl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasa daha fazla risk alan\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcllendiriyor ve bu e\u011filimin k\u0131sa vadede s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin (piyasan\u0131n temel faiz g\u00f6stergesi) bu ay %4,7\u2019nin \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,4\u2019e gerilemesi, ana tetikleyicilerden biri. Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, gelecekte beklenen k\u00e2rlar\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferini hesaplarken kullan\u0131lan oran\u0131 (iskonto oran\u0131) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker; bu da uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli olan \u015firketleri daha cazip g\u00f6sterir. Bu nedenle teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemin olu\u015ftu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi piyasa performans\u0131na yans\u0131yor: Nasdaq 100 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 y\u00fckselerek, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn %2,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, b\u00fcy\u00fcme endekslerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu e\u011filime daha y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri\/zarar etkisi) maruz kalmak i\u00e7in QQQ gibi ETF\u2019lerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya bo\u011fa call spread (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksekten call satma; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Asya piyasalar\u0131ndaki son g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan yar\u0131 iletken hisseleri, bu ivmenin belirgin \u00f6rne\u011fi. K\u0131sa aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7iplere talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da sekt\u00f6r\u00fc yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, b\u00fcy\u00fck yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde veya sekt\u00f6rde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek (beta\u2019s\u0131 y\u00fcksek; piyasaya g\u00f6re daha sert hareket eden) hisselerde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, faizlerin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performansla ayn\u0131 zamana denk geldi; 2020 sonundaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm buna benzerdi. Ayr\u0131ca CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi) son d\u00f6nemde 14\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na inerek birka\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, opsiyon primlerini (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) genelde ucuzlat\u0131r; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc opsiyonla ifade etmeyi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli hale getirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tatilde bile ralliyi ka\u00e7\u0131rmay\u0131n: Avrupa\u2019da risk-on %1,1; d\u00f6ng\u00fcseller, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckler ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri \u00f6nde. Uzun vadeli faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Nasdaq\/yar\u0131 iletkenleri destekliyor; VIX geriledi, opsiyon primleri ucuz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47381"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47381\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}