ABD dolar\u0131, pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn (dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131) ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda dengelendi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir bar\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenlemesi beklentisi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda artan gerilim nedeniyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce, taraflar\u0131n 60 g\u00fcn s\u00fcreyle ate\u015fkesi uzatma (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ge\u00e7ici durdurma), deniz ge\u00e7i\u015fini tamamen a\u00e7ma ve bu s\u00fcreyi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 dahil kalan ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek i\u00e7in kullanma konusunda anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberleri risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) art\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait f\u00fcze rampalar\u0131n\u0131 ve may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen gemileri hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler temkinli havay\u0131 geri getirdi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Fars haber ajans\u0131, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetler s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u201cher yeni sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d b\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015fabilecek \u201c\u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r\u201d bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. Bu arada Doha\u2019daki m\u00fczakereciler, Katarl\u0131 arabulucularla bir Mutabakat Zapt\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (MOU: taraflar\u0131n niyet ve \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi yaz\u0131l\u0131 olarak kayda ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fen \u00f6n metin) sonu\u00e7land\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131; n\u00fckleer ifadeler ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar konusunda anla\u015fmazl\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar endeksi DXY (ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) pazartesi %0,3 gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan 99,00 \u00fczerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi (Hazine tahvillerinin getiri oran\u0131; faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce tahvil fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckselir) yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 d\u00fc\u015ferek 4,5 seviyesine gerilerken, ABD endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: borsada gelecekteki bir tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) %0,7\u2013%0,9 y\u00fckseldi. EUR\/USD 1,1650\u2019nin alt\u0131nda seyretti. GBP\/USD, 1,3500\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra (10 g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesi) %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3480 civar\u0131na indi. USD\/JPY 159,00 \u00e7evresinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n, %1\u2019i a\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 4.500 dolara do\u011fru geriledi. NZD\/USD, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenen karar \u00f6ncesi %0,3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek 0,5850 civar\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 umudu ile yeni askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu gelgit, ciddi bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor ve bu belirsizlik t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon) fiyatlamas\u0131nda temel unsur. \u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller, k\u0131sa vadede piyasa hareketlerini man\u015fet ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (ani haberlerin fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla oynatmas\u0131) belirleyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan etki, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim nedeniyle enerji piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor; bu nedenle olas\u0131 bir aksama k\u00fcresel fiyatlar i\u00e7in kritik. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu t\u00fcr opsiyonlar, ge\u00e7mi\u015f Ortado\u011fu gerilimlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na benzer risklere kar\u015f\u0131 \u201csigorta\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) rol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; DXY 99,00 \u00fczerinde. Doha\u2019daki diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde, g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p dolar, tahvil gibi varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme) dolar\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD gibi paritelerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, artan jeopolitik riske kar\u015f\u0131 savunmac\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil faizleri d\u00fc\u015ferken hisse senedi vadeli i\u015flemlerinin y\u00fckselmesi, piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n konusunda karars\u0131z kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks; \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d diye bilinir), bu belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlaman\u0131n en do\u011frudan yollar\u0131ndan biri. Gerilimin artmas\u0131 halinde geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (VIX call; endeksin y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan opsiyon) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik sonucun iki u\u00e7lu (ya rahatlama ya t\u0131rmanma) olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yaln\u0131zca \u201cyukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcne basit bahisler \u015fu anda \u00e7ok riskli. Bu nedenle, b\u00fcy\u00fck endeksler ve d\u00f6viz paritelerinde straddle veya strangle gibi stratejilerle (opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131: fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden \u00e7ok sert hareket etmesine oynayan yap\u0131; straddle ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131, strangle farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131) do\u011frudan oynakl\u0131\u011fa odaklanmak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi bar\u0131\u015f umutlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgelerken dolar kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi edip DXY 99 \u00fcst\u00fcnde dengelendi. ABD-\u0130ran haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; tahvil faizi gerilerken endeks vadelileri y\u00fckseldi. Alt\u0131n geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47376\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}