Brent petrol, ABD\u2019li yetkililerin \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d olarak niteledi\u011fi \u015fekilde ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma sahalar\u0131 ve may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen teknelere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 98,1 dolar\/varil seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Bu hamle, Brent\u2019i cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 103,5 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131; Brent, ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan d\u00fcn boyunca 98 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Son geli\u015fme, nisan ay\u0131nda var\u0131lan ate\u015fkesi (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 durdurma anla\u015fmas\u0131) daha da zorlad\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ise piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Diplomatik belirsizlik devam etti. Reuters\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zetine g\u00f6re \u00fc\u00e7 a\u015famal\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve masada: sava\u015f\u0131n resmen bitirilmesi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve n\u00fckleer ba\u015fl\u0131klar ile yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hafifletilmesini (baz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) kapsayan daha geni\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in uzat\u0131labilir 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir s\u00fcre. Detaylar\u0131 netle\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131 pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne sarkt\u0131; bu kapsamda \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Arak\u00e7i, Katar Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere Doha\u2019ya gitti. Sal\u0131 sabah\u0131 erken saatlerde ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Rubio, m\u00fczakerelerin birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cbir \u015fekilde\u201d a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde olsa da gece saatlerindeki ABD askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkesi bask\u0131 alt\u0131na ald\u0131. Bu durum petrol piyasas\u0131nda belirgin bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Diplomatik beklentiler ile askeri ad\u0131mlar aras\u0131ndaki bu gerilim piyasada sert bir tedirginli\u011fe yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Brent opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisi) ge\u00e7en hafta y\u00fckseldi; CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 42\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviye marttan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Bu da piyasan\u0131n yak\u0131nda sert bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tehdit eden yeni bir t\u0131rmanma, fiyatlarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikleyebilir; bu da yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu kritik su yoluna y\u00f6nelik benzer tehditler, fiyatlara neredeyse bir gecede 10-15 dolarl\u0131k \u201crisk primi\u201d (risk nedeniyle eklenen fiyat fark\u0131) ekledi. 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar\u0131n tek g\u00fcnde %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, anla\u015fman\u0131n teyit edilmesi ve bo\u011faz\u0131n g\u00fcvenli \u015fekilde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, mevcut \u201csava\u015f risk primi\u201dni ortadan kald\u0131rabilir. Bu primin \u015fu anda fiyatlar\u0131 en az 12 dolar yukar\u0131da tuttu\u011funu tahmin ediyoruz; ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir anla\u015fma Brent\u2019i h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde 80\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n ortas\u0131na geri \u00e7ekebilir. Bu senaryoda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak, ani bir fiyat \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge: riski dengeleme ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon) i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6n\u00fcn bu kadar belirsiz oldu\u011fu ortamda, do\u011frudan \u201coynakl\u0131ktan\u201d (fiyat\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapma e\u011filimi) faydalanan stratejilerin daha uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 vade ile hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu pozisyon, opsiyonlar\u0131n vadesi dolmadan \u00f6nce Brent fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket yaparsa k\u00e2r yazabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent 98 dolarda: ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkesi zorlarken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 riski fiyatlamay\u0131 belirliyor. OVX 42\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; anla\u015fma olursa 80\u2019lere ini\u015f, t\u0131rmanmada sert s\u0131\u00e7rama.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47375\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}