USD\/CAD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan 1,3810 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Petrol\u00fcn toparlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel piyasalarda \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol), d\u00f6rt seansl\u0131k kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91,50 dolar civar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bunun nedeni, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d kapsam\u0131nda d\u00fczenledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan arz endi\u015felerinin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesi oldu. ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), operasyonun f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma alanlar\u0131n\u0131 vurdu\u011funu; \u0130ran\u2019a ait baz\u0131 gemilerin ise may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ise \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sonland\u0131rma ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201colduk\u00e7a iyi ilerledi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, jeopolitik gerilim kaynakl\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi (belirsizlikte tercih edilen para ve varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) ve \u015fahin FED beklentileriyle (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya ya da art\u0131rmaya meyilli duru\u015f) yatay seyretti. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlamas\u0131na g\u00f6re FED faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm), piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %41 olas\u0131l\u0131k verdi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Dikkat, politika sinyali i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan PCE enflasyon verisine \u00e7evrildi. PCE (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi), FED\u2019in en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinden biridir. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Kanada Dolar\u0131 genelde Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) faiz kararlar\u0131 ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemi olan petrol\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 ile; ayr\u0131ca i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesiyle (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) \u015fekillenir. BoC enflasyonu %1\u2013%3 band\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 hedefler; ayr\u0131ca \u201cniceliksel gev\u015feme\/s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d (tahvil al\u0131m\u0131yla piyasaya para verme ya da bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek paray\u0131 \u00e7ekme) gibi ara\u00e7larla kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesi (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) 1,3810 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor; bu da Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyri destekleyici olsa da, k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek veriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinin \u015fu a\u015famada bu paritede daha belirleyici oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme iki ana ba\u015fl\u0131kla besleniyor: s\u00fcren jeopolitik gerilim ve \u015fahin FED beklentisi. Piyasa, y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. DXY (ABD Dolar Endeksi: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 genel de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) de bunu yans\u0131tarak son d\u00f6nemde 106,50 ile alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler yakla\u015fan ABD PCE enflasyon verisinde; bu veri FED\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak. Son veriler, \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) FED\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. CME FedWatch ise Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %45\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor (ge\u00e7en hafta %41). Beklentiden daha y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi, \u015fahin beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek dolar\u0131 daha da yukar\u0131 itebilir.<\/p>\n
Kanada taraf\u0131nda ise daha temkinli bir tablo \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve bu durum Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. BoC, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama endi\u015feleri nedeniyle politika faizini %4,5\u2019te sabit tutuyor; Kanada\u2019da enflasyon hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etse de banka bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu koruyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma (FED\u2019in daha sert, BoC\u2019nin daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131) USD\/CAD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f USD\/CAD\u2019i yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor: Parite Asya\u2019da 1,3810\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131. Petrol 91,50 dolara toparlansa da jeopolitik gerilim ve \u015fahin FED beklentisi Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler PCE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47374\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}