ECB \u0130cra Kurulu \u00fcyesi Isabel Schnabel, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 hemen bug\u00fcn bitse bile enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131ndaki hasar nedeniyle para politikas\u0131nda ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Haziran ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtti ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyondaki ani y\u00fckseli\u015fi art\u0131k \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelemiyece\u011fini\u201d ifade etti. Schnabel ayr\u0131ca enflasyon \u015fokunun sadece enerjide kalmay\u0131p, t\u00fcketim sepetinin di\u011fer kalemlerine de yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretlerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eokun b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde daha a\u011f\u0131r bir bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Schnabel, gelen verilerin enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret etti\u011fini dile getirdi. Finansal ko\u015fullar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tahvil getirilerinde (tahvil faizi) endi\u015fe verici bir geli\u015fme g\u00f6rmedi. Piyasalarda EUR\/USD yaz\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1630 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Haziran ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 rotan\u0131n netle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; buna kar\u015f\u0131 bahis almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil. Kullan\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131k ifadeler, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin (faiz e\u011frisinin \u201c\u00f6n taraf\u0131\u201d) y\u00fckseli\u015fine g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Euribor vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (Euro b\u00f6lgesi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yaz vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak ya da bu s\u00f6zle\u015fmelere sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak en do\u011frudan i\u015flem gibi duruyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin eli, ge\u00e7ici olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k olan enflasyon nedeniyle zorlan\u0131yor. Eurostat verileri man\u015fet enflasyonun %4,1 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131nca kalan enflasyon) ise %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu da fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k genelle\u015fti\u011fini ve kal\u0131c\u0131 hale geldi\u011fini, bankan\u0131n hareketsiz kalma se\u00e7ene\u011finin darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen faizlerle zay\u0131flayan ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn birle\u015fimi Avrupa hisseleri i\u00e7in net bi\u00e7imde olumsuz. Euro Stoxx 50 gibi endekslerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. S&P Global PMI bile\u015fik endeksi (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) 49,5\u2019e gerileyerek i\u015f faaliyetlerinde bir y\u0131ldan sonra ilk kez daralmaya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalara ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden endi\u015fe etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da eurodaki y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanma ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. EUR\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak veya \u201cput spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 seviyede sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p-satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) kurarak 1,1500\u2019e do\u011fru ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almay\u0131 daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019de Schnabel\u2019den \u015fahin alarm: \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 bitse de enerji hasar\u0131 enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor; Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. B\u00fcy\u00fcme riski art\u0131yor, hisse\/eur zay\u0131f; Euribor ve EUR\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 pozisyon \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47371\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}