Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), e\u011fitim ve enerjiyle ilgili s\u00fcbvansiyonlar (devlet destekleri) gibi tek seferlik ve kurumsal etkileri d\u0131\u015flayan yeni \u201caltta yatan enflasyon\u201d g\u00f6stergesinin Nisan\u2019da %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu oran Mart\u2019taki %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ve bankan\u0131n %2\u2019lik hedefini a\u015f\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u00f6zel etkileri hari\u00e7 tutan \u201c\u00e7ekirdek-\u00e7ekirdek\u201d T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) g\u00f6stergesi Nisan\u2019da %2,2 artt\u0131; Mart\u2019ta art\u0131\u015f %2,6 idi. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin referans ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,4 seviyesinde kald\u0131 ve BoJ\u2019un tercih etti\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda USD\/JPY (dolar\/yen) yaz\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada %0,05 art\u0131\u015fla 159,01\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 enflasyonla fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen BoJ, 2013\u2019ten bu yana a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 izledi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u201cNiceliksel ve Niteliksel Gev\u015feme\u201d (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131yla para arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131) uyguland\u0131; 2016\u2019da negatif faiz (mevduata\/rezervlere eksi getiri) ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizini belirli bir seviyede tutmaya y\u00f6nelik \u201cgetiri e\u011frisi kontrol\u00fc\u201d (uzun vadeli faizleri hedefleyerek y\u00f6nlendirme) eklendi. BoJ, Mart 2024\u2019te faizleri art\u0131rarak bu \u00e7izgiden k\u0131smen \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yen, 2022 ve 2023\u2019te di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131yla politika fark\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e zay\u0131flad\u0131; 2024\u2019te ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikadan uzakla\u015fma ad\u0131m\u0131yla bu hareketin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc geri al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni veride \u00e7ekirdek oran\u0131n %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, resmi g\u00f6stergelerin i\u015faret etti\u011finden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, BoJ \u00fczerinde hem enflasyonu kontrol etmek hem de yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fczden 14 Haziran\u2019daki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00f6ylemde ya da ad\u0131mda bir de\u011fi\u015fim olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yen dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 159 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, BoJ\u2019dan daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika sinyali veren) bir s\u00fcrpriz ya da Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale (kurda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak y\u00f6n verme) riski art\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha geni\u015f bir senaryo aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Yen \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) veya USD\/JPY \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, yendeki ani g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ya da bu harekete y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD ile politika fark\u0131 belirgin kalmaya devam ediyor; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizi \u015fu anda %3,75 seviyesinde. Bu geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131, \u201ccarry trade\u201d i\u015flemlerini (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli varl\u0131klara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) destekliyor: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getiri sunan dolar varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6neliyor. BoJ daha sert ad\u0131mlar\u0131n sinyalini verene kadar bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi ve yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ\u2019un yeni \u201caltta yatan enflasyon\u201d g\u00f6stergesi Nisan\u2019da %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak hedefi a\u015ft\u0131; USD\/JPY 159\u2019da. 14 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 kritik: \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz ve m\u00fcdahale riski, opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47369","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47369"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47369\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}