**Jeopolitik Gerginlikler Ortas\u0131nda EUR\/USD Bask\u0131 Alt\u0131nda**<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle hafif geriledi ve 1,1633\u20131,1635 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasa, ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin bozulabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (US Central Command), ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde baz\u0131 hedefleri vurdu\u011funu; hedeflerin f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma noktalar\u0131 ile may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen \u0130ran\u2019a ait gemiler oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ordu, bu ad\u0131m\u0131 \u201csavunma ama\u00e7l\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019la ate\u015fkesi bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu geli\u015fme, Dolar\u2019a destek olurken petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da yukar\u0131 itti; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,05 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. (DXY: Dolar\u2019\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks.) Ayr\u0131ca Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik m\u00fczakerelerin \u201ciyi ilerledi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta parite, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA) 1,1667 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini korudu. (EMA: Son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama; trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r.) Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131ft\u0131; G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 45,1 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. (RSI: 0\u2013100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge; genelde 70 \u00fcst\u00fc \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d, 30 alt\u0131 \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201d olarak izlenir.) Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201ddan \u00e7ok al\u0131m iste\u011finin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Diren\u00e7 1,1667\u2019de; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltabilir ve 1,1700\u2019\u00fc g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. 21 May\u0131s dibi 1,1576\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmesi halinde kay\u0131plar 1,1500\u2019e do\u011fru geni\u015fleyebilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, yeniden sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya ve 1,0815 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu geri \u00e7ekilme, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin artmas\u0131na ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ba\u011flan\u0131yor. (G\u00fcvenli liman: Belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha az riskli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi.)<\/p>\n
Bu hareketi ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik verilerin farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 da destekliyor. ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI) verisi enflasyonun %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu destekliyor. (CPI: T\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er. \u015eahin duru\u015f: Faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmay\u0131 veya art\u0131rmay\u0131 savunan yakla\u015f\u0131m.) Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %2,2\u2019ye gerileyerek beklentiden h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu; bu da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmek i\u00e7in daha fazla alan\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. (Para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmek: Faiz indirmek veya finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 rahatlatmak.)<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo 2022\u20132023 d\u00f6neminde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Fed\u2019in sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa da EUR\/USD i\u00e7in benzer bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. (Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz\/para politikalar\u0131nda farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitmesi.) Bu temel bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n 1,0840 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini teyit ediyor. RSI\u2019\u0131n 42 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, piyasa \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201da girmeden \u00f6nce a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 1,0780 destek seviyesine do\u011fru hareketi hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. (Destek: Fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye.)<\/p>\n
1,0840\u2019taki EMA \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir; ancak 1,0900 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131. (Diren\u00e7: Fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye.) 1,0780\u2019deki son dip seviyesinin alt\u0131na net ge\u00e7ilmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Bu durumda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bir sonraki \u00f6nemli hedef 1,0700 gibi psikolojik seviye olur. (Psikolojik seviye: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kolay hat\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cyuvarlak\u201d seviyeler; al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kararlar\u0131nda s\u0131k izlenir.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD\u2019de jeopolitik tansiyon ve veri ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 alarm veriyor: ABD-\u0130ran\/\u00c7in riskleri Dolar\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Parite 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA alt\u0131nda, RSI zay\u0131f. 1,1667\/1,0840 diren\u00e7; 1,1576\u20131,0780 alt\u0131 1,1500\u20131,0700 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47360\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}