USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparlanmas\u0131yla 159,00 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Parite, ge\u00e7en Per\u015fembe g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n duruyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc G\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019da ABD\u2019nin \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa ama\u00e7l\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u201d yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n yeniden talep g\u00f6rmesiyle destek buldu. Hafta sonu, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 bitirebilecek olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair umutlar g\u00fcndeme gelse de, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ilerlemeyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. (N\u00fckleer program: uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme gibi faaliyetler; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131: K\u00f6rfez\u2019den d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na petrol\u00fcn \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar deniz ge\u00e7idi.)<\/p>\n
Dolar ayr\u0131ca, enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyretmesi ve ABD ekonomisinin (b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/istihdam) dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden destek ald\u0131. Yen, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji arz\u0131 kesintilerinin s\u00fcrmesi halinde Japonya ekonomisinin zorlanabilece\u011fi endi\u015feleriyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu durum 155,00 psikolojik seviyesinden (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olarak izledi\u011fi yuvarlak seviye) gelen toparlanmay\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Japon yetkililerin kuru desteklemek i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fine dair beklenti ise y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. G\u00fcn\u00fcn devam\u0131nda, Conference Board\u2019un ABD T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler izlenecek.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Japon yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve paritenin 159,00 seviyesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini (belirsizlikte daha \u00e7ok tercih edilen varl\u0131k) art\u0131r\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu beklentisi de dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Bu unsurlar k\u0131sa vadede parite i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki ekonomi aras\u0131ndaki temel ayr\u0131\u015fma bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Son veriler, Nisan 2026\u2019da ABD enflasyonunun %3,5 seviyesinde kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimine gitmeyebilece\u011fi fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Japonya, enerji arz\u0131 kesintilerine daha a\u00e7\u0131k; bu da ekonomiyi zorlayabilir ve kendi para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fek kalmas\u0131na neden olabilir. (Gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve piyasaya daha fazla para; s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131: daha y\u00fcksek faiz ve daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 likidite.)<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken \u00e7ok temkinli olmak gerekiyor; buras\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir psikolojik e\u015fik. Japon yetkililer, yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in ge\u00e7mi\u015fte do\u011frudan piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi yapt\u0131. 2022 sonu ve 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda kur benzer e\u015fiklerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dolar sat\u0131p yen alarak (rezervlerle piyasaya girerek) kuru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Bu nedenle, ani ve sert bir resmi m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131t bask\u0131lar nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131). Bu ortamda, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden fayda sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cuzun straddle\u201d stratejisi (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan bir al\u0131m opsiyonu ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) parite ya belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselirse ya da m\u00fcdahaleyle sert d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanabilir. Yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) \u015fimdiden y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olanlar i\u00e7in, politika kaynakl\u0131 sert bir ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 daha uygun. USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak, 160,00 ve \u00fczerine olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar. Bu, olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleye a\u00e7\u0131k \u201cdo\u011frudan uzun pozisyon\u201d (parite y\u00fckselecek diye spotta\/forwardda al\u0131mda kalmak) ta\u015f\u0131maktan daha kontroll\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159\u2019da: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle dolar g\u00fcvenli liman, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor. Ancak 160 psikolojik e\u015fik; Japonya m\u00fcdahale riski oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47358"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47358\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}