NZD\/USD, bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildi. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik nedeniyle yeniden artan **g\u00fcvenli liman** talebiyle (piyasalarda risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131 gibi daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle parite 0,5860 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fox News, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde **me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa** kapsam\u0131nda sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini bildirdi. ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc hedefler aras\u0131nda f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma noktalar\u0131 ve may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen \u0130ran\u2019a ait deniz unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ordu, ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrecinde itidali korurken kendi g\u00fc\u00e7lerini korumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini ekledi. Bloomberg ise pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmeyi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 hedefleyen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201ciyi gitti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131nda, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc **resmi nakit faizini** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli politika faizi) %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, temmuzda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 g\u00f6sterirken, eyl\u00fcle kadar art\u0131\u015f\u0131n tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. RBNZ\u2019nin daha **\u015fahin** (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz sinyali veren) bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesi beklentisi, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131ndaki aksamalar\u0131n enflasyon riskini art\u0131rmas\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede bankan\u0131n enflasyon tahminlerini ve gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 (ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz beklentisi) yukar\u0131 revize etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fi sayesinde g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. **CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX)** (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren ve \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d diye bilinen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm), son bir haftada %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 18 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tedirginli\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, NZD\/USD gibi pariteler \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k RBNZ, Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Kiwi) destekleyen \u00f6nemli bir unsur. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklik **T\u00dcFE** verisi (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonu %4,1\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu seviye hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu nedenle piyasa, yaz aylar\u0131nda RBNZ\u2019den daha sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bekliyor. \u015eahin para politikas\u0131, NZD\u2019nin daha fazla gerilemesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ana etken.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, jeopolitik risk ile para politikas\u0131 aras\u0131nda bir \u00e7eki\u015fme olu\u015fuyor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ihtimali art\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 y\u00fckseltme e\u011filiminde; bu da genelde NZD\/USD\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7ar. Ancak gerginli\u011fin azalmas\u0131 halinde Kiwi\u2019nin faiz avantaj\u0131 bu e\u011filimi tersine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcrev** i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu belirsizlik, oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na) oynayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede **uzun straddle** (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 vade ile hem al\u0131m opsiyonu \u201ccall\u201d hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu \u201cput\u201d sat\u0131n alma; fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fini de\u011fil, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket edece\u011fini bekleme) uygun bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu pozisyon, NZD\/USD\u2019nin opsiyon vadesi dolmadan \u00f6nce (haziran sonu veya temmuz) iki y\u00f6nden birinde belirgin hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funun jeopolitik kayg\u0131lar\u0131 zamanla g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in **NZD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak**, riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir y\u00f6ntem sunar. Opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen **prim** (opsiyonu sat\u0131n alma bedeli) azami zarar anlam\u0131na gelir; Ortado\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar. B\u00f6ylece olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olurken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler NZD\/USD\u2019de: G\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenince parite 0,5860\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. \u0130ran gerilimi VIX\u2019i yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fahinle\u015fmesi Kiwi\u2019yi destekliyor; volatilite y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47357\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}