EUR\/USD, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 1,1635 civar\u0131nda eksi b\u00f6lgeye indi. Euro, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda gerilerken ABD para birimine talep, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikle desteklendi. G\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde piyasalar, ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) yetkilisi Olaf Sleijpen ile Minneapolis Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Minneapolis \u015fubesi) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari\u2019yi dinleyecek. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar k\u0131sa vadede oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, Fox News\u2019in ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa ama\u00e7l\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u201d d\u00fczenledi\u011fini bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcndemin \u00fcst s\u0131ralar\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti. ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma noktalar\u0131n\u0131 ve may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u0130ran\u2019a ait gemi ve botlar\u0131 hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD ordusu ise ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrecinde itidalli davran\u0131rken kendi g\u00fc\u00e7lerini koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131 bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Bloomberg, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmeye ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi ge\u00e7it) yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201ciyi gitti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Para politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda ise piyasalar, ECB Watch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ECB\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k (faizde 0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair belirsizlik nedeniyle dolara \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) talebi art\u0131yor; bu da EUR\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Piyasadaki tedirginlik, y\u00fckselen oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede daha b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmas\u0131) yans\u0131yor. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanma \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) son g\u00fcnlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %6\u2019dan %8,5\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha sert fiyat hareketleri bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilim petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) bu hafta %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filiminde. Bu durum, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ni ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha olumsuz etkileyebilir. B\u00f6yle bir tablo, ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) duru\u015fu olsa bile eurodaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerde belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma izleniyor. Piyasalar haziranda ECB\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, CME FedWatch Tool (vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) Fed\u2019den benzer bir ad\u0131m ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %20 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6steriyor. Normalde bu tablo euro i\u00e7in destekleyici say\u0131l\u0131r; ancak \u015fu anda belirleyici unsur jeopolitik risk.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, artan belirsizlikten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen t\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. EUR\/USD\u2019de straddle veya strangle almak (opsiyonla, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler; straddle\u2019da ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonu, strangle\u2019da farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131n\u0131r) beklenen hareketi i\u015flemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Daha fazla t\u0131rmanma bekleyenler i\u00e7in ise 1,1500 psikolojik seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoya pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik sis perdesi dolar\u0131 parlat\u0131yor: EUR\/USD 1,1635\u2019e geriledi. ABD-\u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131rken oynakl\u0131k %8,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; petrol 95 dolar \u00fcst\u00fc, ECB-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47355"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47355\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}