{"id":47353,"date":"2026-05-26T04:51:44","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T04:51:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/trump-hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagi-beklentilerinin-wtii-yaklasik-7-dusurmesiyle-iran-gorusmelerindeki-ilerlemeyi-ovdu\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T04:51:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T04:51:44","slug":"trump-hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagi-beklentilerinin-wtii-yaklasik-7-dusurmesiyle-iran-gorusmelerindeki-ilerlemeyi-ovdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/trump-hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagi-beklentilerinin-wtii-yaklasik-7-dusurmesiyle-iran-gorusmelerindeki-ilerlemeyi-ovdu\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerinin WTI\u2019\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki ilerlemeyi \u00f6vd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Bloomberg\u2019\u00fcn pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc haberine g\u00f6re, \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirecek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak bir anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201ciyi ilerledi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Trump ayr\u0131ca Suudi Arabistan, Katar ve di\u011fer \u00fclkeleri \u0130brahim Anla\u015fmalar\u0131\u2019na (ABD\u2019nin arabuluculuk etti\u011fi normalle\u015fme anla\u015fmalar\u0131) kat\u0131lmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na do\u011fru ivme oldu\u011funu i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

ABD ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 netle\u015fmesi gereken ba\u015fl\u0131klar bulunuyor. Bunlar aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemilerin engellenmeden ge\u00e7i\u015f yap\u0131p yapamayaca\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019a ait milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k fonlar\u0131n (dondurulmu\u015f para ve varl\u0131klar\u0131n) ne zaman serbest b\u0131rak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Piyasalarda ise haberin ard\u0131ndan petrol geriledi; ABD tipi ham petrol WTI g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %6,75 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 89,55 dolara indi.<\/p>\n

Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Dalgalanma ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

WTI\u2019daki %6,75\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasan\u0131n anla\u015fma ihtimalini daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ani belirsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131, petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu durumda opsiyon sat\u0131n almak pahal\u0131la\u015f\u0131r; ancak fiyatlar belirgin bir y\u00f6nde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket ederse elde tutmak kazan\u00e7l\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel arz\u0131n (piyasaya \u00e7\u0131kan toplam petrol miktar\u0131) artma ihtimali nedeniyle, temmuz ve a\u011fustos vadeli WTI ve Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00f6ncesi ihracat verilerine g\u00f6re bir anla\u015fma \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3 milyon varil ek arz\u0131n piyasaya d\u00f6nmesine yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da fiyatlar\u0131 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine itebilir. 20 May\u0131s 2026 tarihli EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) raporunda stoklarda \u201cbeklenmedik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d (piyasa beklentisinin tersine stok azalmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ancak jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fim bu etkiyi geri plana itiyor.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla \u201cay\u0131 put spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve kazanc\u0131 belli bir aral\u0131kla s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. En b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin aniden \u00e7\u00f6kmesi; bu senaryoda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir ve bu pozisyonlar zarar yazabilir. Bu nedenle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozuldu\u011funa dair her haberde pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zla kapat\u0131lmas\u0131na haz\u0131r olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, 2015\u2019teki JCPOA\u2019ya (\u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131) giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; piyasa \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc beklerken fiyatlar uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmi\u015fti. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fcresel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 (t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi) nedeniyle piyasan\u0131n yeni arza ge\u00e7mi\u015fe g\u00f6re daha hassas oldu\u011fu, bu y\u00fczden ham petrolde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin daha belirginle\u015fti\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Daha Geni\u015f Piyasa Etkileri ve Ek \u0130\u015flemler<\/h3>\n

Ham petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u201ct\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler\u201d (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. opsiyon ve vadeli kontrat) \u00fczerinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 da g\u00fcndemde. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) \u00fczerinde put al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol \u00fcreticisi \u015firket hisseleri emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan duyarl\u0131. Enerji hisselerinde bu riskin tam fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu nedenle giri\u015f i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir seviye olu\u015ftu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kritik haber: Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirip H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fc a\u00e7acak anla\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u201ciyi gidiyor\u201d dedi. WTI %6,75 d\u00fc\u015ferken 1,3 milyon varil ek arz beklentisi put\/ay\u0131 put spreadi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47353"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47353\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}