AUD\/USD, Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda %0,70 y\u00fckselerek 0,7167\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Parite, 0,7150 civar\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. Bunun arkas\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131ndaki (Greenback: piyasan\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 takma ad) zay\u0131flama ve ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Strait of Hormuz) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eren ate\u015fkesi 60 g\u00fcn uzatma konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131yla artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fiyat hareketi, yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 piplik (pip: kurda genellikle d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ondal\u0131k basamaktaki en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim; \u00f6rn. 0,0001) bant i\u00e7inde yatay seyre (konsolidasyon: belirgin trend olmadan dar aral\u0131kta dalgalanma) i\u015faret ediyor. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n aritmetik ortalamas\u0131) 0,7185\u2019te y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 0,7098\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri (fiyat h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6stergeler) n\u00f6trden pozitife yak\u0131n. G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: 0-100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekle a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 0,7200\u2019\u00fc g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; buran\u0131n da a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 6 May\u0131s zirvesi 0,07277\u2019yi ve ard\u0131ndan 0,7300 seviyesini hedefe koyabilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bozarak 19 May\u0131s d\u00f6ng\u00fc dip seviyesi (cycle low: belirli periyottaki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye) 0,7079\u2019u, ard\u0131ndan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 0,7033\u2019\u00fc ve 0,7000 psikolojik seviyesini (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cyuvarlak\u201d rakamlar nedeniyle daha \u00e7ok \u00f6nem verdi\u011fi seviye) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) enflasyonu %2-3 band\u0131nda hedefliyor. Demir cevheri ise 2021 verilerine g\u00f6re y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolarl\u0131k de\u011ferle (ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ve \u00c7in ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 talep \u00fczerinden) d\u0131\u015f tarafta kritik bir belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan destek buluyor. Bunun temel nedeni, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmesi. Parite \u015fu anda dar bir bantta yatay seyrediyor; 0,7185 civar\u0131ndaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (moving average: fiyat\u0131n ortalamas\u0131yla trendi g\u00f6steren teknik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout: fiyat\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131) ihtimalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n bekleyenler i\u00e7in, fiyat 0,7185 direncinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin %3,8 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funu (hawkish: daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimi) destekliyor. Bu da 0,7200 ve 0,7277\u2019ye do\u011fru hareketi besleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Tersi senaryoda, AUD\/USD 0,7098\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inerse sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Buradaki ana risk, \u00c7in ekonomisindeki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k; son sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma, paritenin 0,7079 dip seviyesini test etmesine ve 0,7000 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fine y\u00f6nelmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve genel piyasa havas\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 ton ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelenerek Avustralya dolar\u0131na taban olu\u015fturuyor ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f tetikleyicisi \u00fcretmiyor. Jeopolitik tansiyonun yeniden artmas\u0131 veya \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) havas\u0131, son kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 h\u0131zla geri ald\u0131rabilir ve AUD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ralli: AUD\/USD %0,70 art\u0131\u015fla 0,7167\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti. 0,7185 diren\u00e7; \u00fcst\u00fc 0,7200-0,7277, alt\u0131 0,7098-0,7000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47351\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}