Sterlin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. GBP\/USD paritesi, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artmas\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu 1,3500 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,54 art\u0131da, 14 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu (gap: fiyat\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re arada i\u015flem olmadan farkl\u0131 seviyeden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Hareket, ge\u00e7en hafta 1,3300 civar\u0131na kadar g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve 8 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan toparlanman\u0131n devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde oldu ve Asya i\u015flemlerinde pariteyi yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131k bir bu\u00e7uk haftan\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Asya saatlerinin erken b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde GBP\/USD 1,3480 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ABD piyasalar\u0131 Anma G\u00fcn\u00fc (Memorial Day) nedeniyle kapal\u0131 oldu\u011fundan i\u015flem hacminin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (likiditenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131: al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131n az oldu\u011fu) kalmas\u0131 bekleniyordu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiliz Sterlini, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik iyimserli\u011fin dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131yla dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3500 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor. Parite son be\u015f i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde %1,4\u2019ten fazla de\u011fer kazanarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme (momentum: fiyat\u0131n belirli y\u00f6nde h\u0131zlanma e\u011filimi) sergiledi. Bu hareket, ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,3300 seviyesinden belirgin bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hareketten faydalanmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in 1,3500 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak do\u011frudan bir strateji olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, paritede y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrerse kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken, olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (premium: opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Ancak temkinli olmak gerekir; bu y\u00fckseli\u015f jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 ve h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015febilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131, sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere ve dolara \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebine (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu nedenle m\u00fczakerelerde olumsuz bir i\u015faret, son kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca geri alabilir ve y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (over-leveraged: sermayeye g\u00f6re a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bor\u00e7lanarak b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon alma) pozisyonlar\u0131 zor durumda b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n
Riski daha net s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir strateji olarak bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme) kullan\u0131labilir. Bu yap\u0131, toplam maliyet ve riski azalt\u0131r. Parite 1,3500 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc psikolojik diren\u00e7 (piyasada \u00f6nemli kabul edilen seviye; sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n artabildi\u011fi b\u00f6lge) seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f hedeflemek i\u00e7in daha kontroll\u00fc bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
Ani bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131, mevcut uzun (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan) pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak bir hedge (korunma: olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleme) olabilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 1,3500 gibi psikolojik seviyelerde k\u00e2r realizasyonu (profit-taking: kazan\u00e7 sonras\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ve bu da 50-100 piplik (pip: d\u00f6viz paritelerinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; GBP\/USD\u2019de genelde 0,0001) geri \u00e7ekilmeleri tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma bulundurmak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin s\u00fcrpriz ata\u011fa kalkt\u0131: ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisiyle dolar zay\u0131flarken GBP\/USD 1,3500\u2019ye dayand\u0131. Son be\u015f g\u00fcnde %1,4 art\u0131\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacimde opsiyon\/spread ve hedge stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47349"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47349\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}