ABD hisseleri, Anma G\u00fcn\u00fc nedeniyle k\u0131salan haftaya, \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi beklentisi ve teknoloji hisselerinde yo\u011fun pozisyonlanman\u0131n deste\u011fiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giriyor. WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc) pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc nisan ortas\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Piyasalar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7abilecek olas\u0131 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumu (n\u00fckleer yak\u0131t i\u00e7in safla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f uranyum) konusunda ayr\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin haberleri tartt\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019inin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Buna ra\u011fmen, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n martta bo\u011faz\u0131 k\u0131smen kapatmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 600 milyon varili a\u015fan arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla (piyasaya eksik gelen ham petrol miktar\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Diplomatik \u00e7abalar, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130brahim Anla\u015fmalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda Arap \u00fclkelerinin \u0130srail\u2019i tan\u0131mas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik giri\u015fimin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 gibi nedenlerle karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stergeleri ve fon ak\u0131mlar\u0131 riskli varl\u0131klara (hisse senedi gibi dalgalanmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) talebin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti. Bank of America\u2019n\u0131n Bull & Bear Indicator\u2019\u0131 (piyasan\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ge\u00e7en hafta 8,0\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. ABD hisse fonlar\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste sekizinci haftada da para giri\u015fi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; yaln\u0131zca teknoloji fonlar\u0131na 9 milyar dolar girdi ve bu, Ekim 2025\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oldu. Goldman Sachs, hedge fonlar\u0131n (kald\u0131ra\u00e7 ve k\u0131sa sat\u0131\u015f gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle i\u015flem yapan fonlar) teknoloji hisselerini yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 temposunda ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve MSCI World endeksine (k\u00fcresel hisse \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) g\u00f6re teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fckse\u011fine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Grafiklerde S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 14 May\u0131s zirvesi 7.517 seviyesinde; RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi, fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesini \u00f6l\u00e7er) 68\u2019e geriledi. Uzun vadeli trend \u00e7izgileri 8.200-8.300 band\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmede 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama, fiyat\u0131n son 50 g\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131) civar\u0131nda, \u00f6nceki 7.000 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda destek g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 piyasalar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olabilir. Petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, t\u00fcketici ve \u015firketler i\u00e7in fiilen \u201cvergi indirimi\u201d gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r; akaryak\u0131t ve enerji maliyetleri azal\u0131nca harcanabilir gelir artar ve bu da \u015firket k\u00e2r beklentilerini destekler. WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ileri tarihli petrol al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) bu beklentiyle %5\u2019i a\u015fan bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclerek fiyat 88 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi; bu da hisselerde y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131 i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 da bu iyimserli\u011fe yak\u0131n duruyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX, piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d; beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 12,5\u2019e geriledi; bu seviye ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu, \u201ckoruyucu put\u201dlara (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi kullan\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonlar\u0131) talebin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Yani yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha sakin bir piyasa ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket beklentisiyle konumlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) veya Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) \u00fczerinde \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131yla (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131n\u0131r) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. K\u0131sa vadeli call almak veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d (bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) kullanmak, olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketi kontroll\u00fc riskle yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ralli h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri hedefleyen) kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimserli\u011fin risk olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi de unutulmamal\u0131. AAII anketinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 iyimserli\u011finin %47\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte zaman zaman d\u00fczeltme (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) \u00f6ncesi g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelerle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015febiliyor. Ancak 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda da piyasa bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden uzun s\u00fcre iyimser kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut ivme, \u015fimdilik y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de S&P 500\u2019de 8.200 seviyesine do\u011fru hareketin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini destekliyor. Beklenmedik bir zay\u0131fl\u0131kta ise 7.000 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m deste\u011fi olu\u015fmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu b\u00f6lge, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ile daha \u00f6nce \u00f6nemli g\u00f6r\u00fclen psikolojik diren\u00e7 seviyesinin kesi\u015fti\u011fi alan olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Wall Street k\u0131salan haftaya co\u015fkulu ba\u015flad\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran\u2019da olas\u0131 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes beklentisi WTI\u2019\u0131 90 dolar alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti, VIX 12,5\u2019e indi; teknoloji fonlar\u0131na rekor giri\u015fler S&P 500\u2019\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47346"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47346\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}