USD\/CAD Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi ve d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3820 civar\u0131ndaki zirveden d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,3803 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik deniz ge\u00e7idi) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek olas\u0131 anla\u015fmaya dair ilerleme haberleri sonras\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Bu hava de\u011fi\u015fimi petrol\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; WTI (ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi.<\/p>\n
Daha zay\u0131f petrol fiyatlar\u0131, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foku (enerji fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131nca genel fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi) endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131. Ancak Kanada\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ham petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, d\u00fc\u015fen petrol CAD\u2019e (Kanada Dolar\u0131) deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kalan ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u2014\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi, dondurulan varl\u0131klar ve ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131\u2014USD\u2019ye (ABD Dolar\u0131) talebin daha fazla azalmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi. DXY (ABD Dolar\u0131 endeksi; dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) 99,00 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, odak politika beklentilerine kayd\u0131. Fed\u2019in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD PCE verisiyle test edilecek.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3800\u2019e do\u011fru mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmesini, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair temkinli iyimserli\u011fin etkisiyle ge\u00e7ici bir hareket olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa man\u015fetlere tepki veriyor; ancak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen temel dinamikler de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde k\u0131sa vadeli bir pozisyon f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn Kanada dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131, jeopolitik iyimserli\u011fin ABD dolar\u0131nda yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 genel zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan daha belirleyici olacak. WTI ham petrol ge\u00e7en haftada %5\u2019ten fazla gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi; bu durum emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 CAD \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 kuruyor. Tarihsel olarak WTI ile USD\/CAD aras\u0131ndaki negatif korelasyon (biri y\u00fckselirken di\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Bu nedenle petrolde kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k, kur i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne odaklan\u0131yoruz. Bu g\u00f6sterge, Fed\u2019in en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (vadeli piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131ndan Fed faiz beklentisini \u00e7\u0131karan g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in yaz boyunca faizleri mevcut seviyede tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 beklentisine e\u015fit ya da daha y\u00fcksek gelmesi, \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir ve ABD dolar\u0131nda al\u0131m\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol ve jeopolitik man\u015fetler USD\/CAD\u2019i ters k\u00f6\u015fe yapt\u0131! Olas\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz anla\u015fmas\u0131yla dolar gev\u015fedi, WTI \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n dibinde; parite 1,3800\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe PCE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47344"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47344\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}