ABD dolar\u0131 haftaya zay\u0131f ba\u015flad\u0131. Dolar Endeksi (USD Index\/DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki genel de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla 99,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inip iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerine geriledi. Bu iyimserlikte, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair beklentiler etkili oldu. ABD takviminde Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Chicago Fed Ulusal Faaliyet Endeksi (ekonomik aktivitenin genel seyrini izleyen g\u00f6sterge), FHFA Konut Fiyat Endeksi (ABD\u2019de ipotekli konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 takip eden resmi endeks) ve S&P\/Case-Shiller Konut Fiyat Endeksi (b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirlerde konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) izlenecek.<\/p>\n
G10 taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD, geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken 1,1650 civar\u0131nda son g\u00fcnlerin zirvelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. GBP\/USD iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirerek 1,3500 \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi; g\u00fcndemde BRC Ma\u011faza Fiyat Enflasyonu (\u0130ngiliz Perakendeciler Konsorsiyumu\u2019nun perakende fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) ve CBI Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m Ticareti verileri (\u0130ngiliz i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketi; perakende sat\u0131\u015f e\u011filimlerini \u00f6l\u00e7er) var. USD\/JPY iki seansl\u0131k kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 159,00 civar\u0131nda dengelendi; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n nihai E\u015fanl\u0131 ve \u00d6nc\u00fc Ekonomik Endeksleri (mevcut durumu ve gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck e\u011filimi izleyen g\u00f6stergeler) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. AUD\/USD 0,7180\u2019e do\u011fru toparland\u0131; Avustralya enflasyon verileri 27 May\u0131s\u2019ta. Emtialarda WTI, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimalinin fiyatlanmas\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,00 dolar civar\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n diplerine indi. Alt\u0131n ise zay\u0131flayan dolar ve ABD tahvil getirilerindeki (Treasury yields: ABD devlet tahvillerinin faizi) kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyirle ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.600 dolara do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lendi (troy ons: alt\u0131n gibi k\u0131ymetli metallerde kullan\u0131lan yakla\u015f\u0131k 31,1 graml\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc birimi).<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana e\u011filim olarak ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n izlenmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. DXY\u2019nin kritik 99,00 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na inmesiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme belirginle\u015fti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, dolar izleyen ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) put opsiyonlar\u0131yla (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 90 dolar\/varil seviyesine d\u00fc\u015fmesi, olas\u0131 \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131yla do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Bu durum, 2015\u2019teki JCPOA (Ortak Kapsaml\u0131 Eylem Plan\u0131: \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde fiyatlar izleyen aylarda %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti. ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 1,8 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f (envanter: depolardaki toplam stok) da bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 arz fazlas\u0131 (supply glut: piyasada ihtiya\u00e7tan fazla arz) riskine kar\u015f\u0131 WTI put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n uygun bir strateji olabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Euro, Sterlin ve \u00f6zellikle Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi para birimlerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, klasik bir \u201crisk alma\u201d (risk-on: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ortam\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa korkusunun \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden VIX (oynakl\u0131k endeksi: S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen volatilite beklentisi) \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k diplerine yak\u0131n 12 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da daha y\u00fcksek getiri sunan para birimlerine talebi destekliyor. 27 May\u0131s enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde AUD\/USD\u2019de call opsiyonlar\u0131 (call opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendiriliyor; veri piyasaya ek y\u00f6n verebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.600 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fi, dolar\u0131n gerilemesinin do\u011frudan sonucu; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201calternatif varl\u0131k\u201d (dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131) rol\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n ile DXY aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc; dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde bu ili\u015fki s\u0131k\u00e7a -0,5\u2019e (korelasyon: iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte hareket derecesi; eksi de\u011fer ters y\u00f6n\u00fc g\u00f6sterir) yakla\u015fabiliyor. Son d\u00f6nemde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler de alt\u0131na alttan gelen talebi (underlying bid: fiyat\u0131 destekleyen s\u00fcrekli al\u0131m iste\u011fi) destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar endeksi 99\u2019un alt\u0131na sarkarak iki haftan\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; risk-on ve olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 etkili. Euro\/sterlin\/AUD y\u00fckselirken WTI 90\u2019a indi, alt\u0131n 4.600\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. Put\/call opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47341"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47341\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}