{"id":47340,"date":"2026-05-26T03:49:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T03:49:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-ateskesi-umudu-dolari-baskilarken-euro-yukseldi-ecb-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-eur-usdyi-destekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T03:49:05","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T03:49:05","slug":"abd-iran-ateskesi-umudu-dolari-baskilarken-euro-yukseldi-ecb-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-eur-usdyi-destekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-ateskesi-umudu-dolari-baskilarken-euro-yukseldi-ecb-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-eur-usdyi-destekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi umudu dolar\u0131 bask\u0131larken euro y\u00fckseldi; ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri EUR\/USD\u2019yi destekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Euro Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,37 y\u00fckseldi; EUR\/USD 1,1645 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkesi 60 g\u00fcn uzatacak bir anla\u015fma umudunu ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme program\u0131 (uranyumun \u201cyak\u0131t yap\u0131m\u0131na uygun\u201d oranlarda art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fini fiyatlad\u0131. ABD hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce i\u015flem g\u00f6ren endeks kontratlar\u0131) y\u00fckselirken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 yataya yak\u0131n kapatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,33 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,99\u2019a geriledi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; West Texas Intermediate (WTI \u2013 ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) tatil nedeniyle hem Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde hem ABD\u2019de veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131yla likiditenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u015flemlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,50 gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91,66 dolara indi.<\/p>\n

Para politikas\u0131 sinyalleri ve faiz beklentileri (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cfiyatlamas\u0131\u201d) g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Ifo anketi (i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcvenini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) alg\u0131da iyile\u015fme g\u00f6sterse de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Avrupa Komisyonu, Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2026\u2019da %1,3\u2019ten %0,9\u2019a yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enflasyonun ise %1,9\u2019dan %3\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Para piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar ECB\u2019den iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re 11 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ilk art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %77,64. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/USD, 1,1658\u2019deki SMA k\u00fcmesinin (basit hareketli ortalama \u2013 fiyat\u0131n belli g\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131yla trendi g\u00f6steren seviye) alt\u0131nda; destek 1,1573 ve 1,1271, diren\u00e7 1,1813 civar\u0131nda. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi \u2013 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m sinyali veren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 46 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n

Euro Momentum and Underlying Drivers<\/h3>\n

Bug\u00fcn Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckselerek 1,1645\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 umudunun dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 bu hareketi destekliyor. \u0130ran\u2019dan yeniden petrol arz\u0131 gelebilece\u011fi beklentisi ham petrol\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,5 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; bu da dolar \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Alg\u0131daki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, tek para birimi i\u00e7in net ama muhtemelen ge\u00e7ici bir y\u00f6n sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n

Odak noktam\u0131z, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tona kaymas\u0131 (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 e\u011filimi) ve bunun Euro\u2019yu desteklemesi. Almanya\u2019da May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc HICP enflasyon verisi (Harmonize T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi \u2013 \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 k\u0131yaslanabilir enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %3,2 ile %3,0 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n 11 Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %77 seviyesinde fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %0,9\u2019a yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD\u2019de kritik verilerin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu bir haftaya giriyoruz. Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) enflasyonu takip ederken tercih etti\u011fi g\u00f6sterge olan \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nde (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; \u201c\u00e7ekirdek\u201d enerji ve g\u0131day\u0131 d\u0131\u015flar) olacak. Bu veri ge\u00e7en ay %2,9 olmu\u015ftu. Beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir sonu\u00e7, dolar kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla geri ald\u0131rabilir ve Euro\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n

Strategy and Risk Management Approaches<\/h3>\n

1,1658 civar\u0131ndaki teknik diren\u00e7 nedeniyle, do\u011frudan spot pozisyon (anl\u0131k kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) i\u00e7in uygun bir zemin g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi ve yakla\u015fan \u00f6nemli verilerin y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirebilece\u011fi bu ortamda, riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130mal\u0131 oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) 2022\u2019deki merkez bankas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in 1,1660 direncinin biraz \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike \u2013 opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call \u2013 y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD enflasyonu veya istihdam verileri beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put \u2013 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma hakk\u0131) ile koruma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu yap\u0131, yukar\u0131 potansiyele kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken riski \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonun maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Euro %0,37 y\u00fckselip 1,1645\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes umudu DXY\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131rken petrol %5,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ECB\u2019den iki art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019de, teknik diren\u00e7 1,1658.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47340\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}