Alt\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ham petrol\u00fcn bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi; XAU\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,40 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.572 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasalar, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u201canla\u015fma\u201d ihtimaline dair yeniden \u00e7\u0131kan s\u00f6ylemlere tepki verdi. Haberlere g\u00f6re 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici durdurulmas\u0131) uzat\u0131lmas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (denizden uygulanan engelleme) kald\u0131rmas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde; n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakereler ise s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n gelmesiyle WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 99,00 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi. B\u00f6ylece odak, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon riskini (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanma riski) s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131p s\u0131n\u0131rlamayaca\u011f\u0131na ve bunun da Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 (faizlerin izleyece\u011fi olas\u0131 yol) nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fine kayd\u0131. Vadeli i\u015flemlerdeki fiyatlama (gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck kontratlar\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenti), Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 25 baz puan = 0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat) bulundu\u011fu 4.381 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; ancak 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 4.800 dolar civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 44\u2019e yak\u0131n. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve histogram (g\u00f6stergenin barlarla g\u00f6sterilen fark b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc) hafif negatif; bu da yatay bant hareketiyle uyumlu. Yak\u0131n destek 4.500 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.381 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczeri. 4.800 dolar \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda 5.000 dolar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 2022\u2019de 1.136 tona, yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu hafta Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD PCE enflasyon raporu (PCE: ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ve Fed yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 izlenecek.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda stratejimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ana unsur ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki geli\u015fmeler. Anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik olumlu haberlerin ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 ve petrol\u00fc zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da alt\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden gelecek man\u015fetlere h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verecek \u015fekilde konumlanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petroldeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f en belirgin etki. Fiyat bu hafta %7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 84 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu durum, Fed \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratan enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foku (enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n genel fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 itmesi) riski zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim faiz beklentilerine de yans\u0131d\u0131. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re (FedWatch: vadeli i\u015flemlerden toplant\u0131 bazl\u0131 faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 son 24 saatte %40\u2019tan %32\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi. Faiz getirisi olmayan (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi \u00fcretmeyen) bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in daha \u201cyumu\u015fak\u201d bir Fed (daha az agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) olumlu bir sinyal. Bu de\u011fi\u015fen para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden yararlanabilecek t\u00fcrev enstr\u00fcman (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fman\u0131n netle\u015fmesi h\u00e2linde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert bir hareket ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, alt\u0131nda \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.800 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike: s\u00f6zle\u015fmede belirlenen al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131) sahip bir al\u0131m opsiyonu, k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda belirgin kald\u0131ra\u00e7 (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck hareketten daha b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri etkisi) sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, pozitif habere s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve \u00f6nceden bilinen riskle kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ancak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olma ihtimali de var. Bu nedenle, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerine y\u00f6nelik sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) koruma (hedge: ters hareketten zarar azaltma) amac\u0131yla etkili g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Anla\u015fma bozulursa petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu senaryoda petrol put\u2019lar\u0131 de\u011fer kazanarak kayb\u0131 dengeleyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flemlerin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 belirlerken grafikteki seviyeleri kullan\u0131yoruz. 4.381 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131, zarar-kes (stop-loss: zarar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden pozisyonu kapatan seviye) i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 4.800 dolar direnci, alt\u0131n uzun (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in izledi\u011fimiz ana tetikleyici.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 talebi de uzun vadeli g\u00fcven veriyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n net 290 ton al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun y\u0131l ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kayda ge\u00e7en en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6nem oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. S\u00fcregelen al\u0131mlar, piyasaya taban olu\u015fturuyor; geri \u00e7ekilmelerde fiyat\u0131n destek bulma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar ABD-\u0130ran \u201canla\u015fma\u201d man\u015fetini fiyatl\u0131yor: DXY ve petrol gerilerken alt\u0131n %1,4 y\u00fckseldi. Odak Fed patikas\u0131 ve PCE\u2019de. Teknikte 4.500-4.800 bant, k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda 5.000 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47337"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47337\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}