Meksika\u2019n\u0131n cari i\u015flemler dengesi ilk \u00e7eyrekte 15.878 milyon dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. B\u00f6ylece bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki 7.702 milyon dolarl\u0131k fazladan ters y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f oldu. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe 23.580 milyon dolarl\u0131k bozulmaya i\u015faret ediyor ve d\u0131\u015f dengeyi pozitiften negatife ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, d\u00f6nem boyunca Meksika\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131yla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 net para giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (mal ve hizmet ticareti, gelir \u00f6demeleri gibi kalemlerin toplam\u0131) sert bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Son \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekle do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00fclkenin genel d\u0131\u015f dengesindeki tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Fazladan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa bu kadar sert ge\u00e7i\u015f, Meksika pesosu i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir uyar\u0131 sinyali. Bunu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda MXN\u2019nin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetme riskini art\u0131ran temel bir de\u011fi\u015fim olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa art\u0131k \u201cs\u00fcper peso\u201d denilen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc peso anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini sorgulamak zorunda.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1 ayl\u0131k USD\/MXN opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde artarak %14,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, daha geni\u015f i\u015flem bantlar\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle straddle gibi opsiyon stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma) pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; ancak beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in gerekli olabilir. USD\/MXN kuru da 17,50 civar\u0131ndan y\u00fckselerek 17,85 seviyesini test etti.<\/p>\n
USD\/MXN paritesinde \u201cpara d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6neliyoruz. Temmuz 2026 vadede 18,50 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, pesoda olas\u0131 sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zarar ile (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk) yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Opsiyonlar\u0131n maliyeti art\u0131yor; ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde getiri potansiyeli y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Peso, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde carry trade (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 arama) sayesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Banxico politika faizi %10,5 iken Fed faizi %4,75 seviyesinde. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fcrk\u00fcterek carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; bu durumda y\u00fcksek faize ra\u011fmen peso sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Tarihsel olarak cari dengenin bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bozuldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemler, pesoda kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131flama evreleriyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131k, West Texas Intermediate ham petrol fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken gelmesi nedeniyle ayr\u0131ca dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Veriler, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndan de\u011fil; ithalattaki sert art\u0131\u015f ve gelir \u00f6demelerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015ften (\u00f6r. faiz, k\u00e2r transferleri gibi yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yap\u0131lan \u00f6demeler) kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca pesonun istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na veya g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine dayanan stratejilerde pozisyonumuzu azalt\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f! Meksika cari denge 1\u00c7\u2019de 15,9 milyar $ a\u00e7\u0131kla \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrek fazlay\u0131 sildi; peso i\u00e7in alarm. USD\/MXN y\u00fckseldi, volatilite artt\u0131; carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131flama riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47334\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}