Scotiabank\u2019in K\u00fcresel D\u00f6viz (FX) Stratejisi ekibi, ABD ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki tatiller nedeniyle piyasada **likiditenin** (al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131n rahat yap\u0131labilmesi) zay\u0131f ve **i\u015flem hacminin** (toplam al\u0131m-sat\u0131m miktar\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu bildirdi. ABD borsa vadeli i\u015flemleri yeni zirveleri test ederken, k\u00fcresel g\u00f6sterge petrol fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 dolar\/varil geriledi ve bu da piyasada **risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) art\u0131rd\u0131. Banka ayr\u0131ca, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda anla\u015fma ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenin yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle birlikte, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n G10 para birimlerinin tamam\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 genel olarak zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Emtialarda ekip, bak\u0131r\u0131n may\u0131s ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen rekor seviyeler sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan geri \u00e7ekilmeyi telafi ederek yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. Alt\u0131nda ise odak, \u00f6nemli bir **teknik seviye** (grafik analizinde kritik kabul edilen fiyat noktas\u0131) olan 4.500 dolar\/ons d\u00fczeyi oldu; bu seviye \u015fu ana kadar **destek** (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunabildi\u011fi seviye) i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu e\u015fik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, Scotiabank\u2019in **\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc hareket** (grafikteki \u00f6nceki hareketin benzeri b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte yeni hareket varsay\u0131m\u0131) projeksiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, belirtilen seviyeden yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 dolar\/ons daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasada risk i\u015ftah\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. ABD borsa vadeli i\u015flemleri, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 6.500 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki yeni rekorlara do\u011fru ilerliyor. ABD dolar\u0131 genel olarak zay\u0131f; **Dolar Endeksi (DXY)** (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 98,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde **faiz indirimi** yapma ihtimalini giderek daha fazla fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu **risk-on** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, bak\u0131r gibi sanayi metallerini yeniden destekliyor; bak\u0131r son geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan toparlan\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen son **imalat PMI** verisi (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; \u00fcretim faaliyetinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) beklentilerin \u00fczerinde 51,2 ile a\u00e7\u0131klanarak sanayi talebi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc destekledi. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, olas\u0131 ABD\/\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 haberleriyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 85 dolara do\u011fru gerilemesi, **enflasyon** (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131nda odak 4.500 dolar\/ons **destek seviyesi**. Bu seviye, son iki y\u0131lda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n tarihi \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki al\u0131mlar\u0131yla fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u015eimdilik korunuyor; ancak k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde sert bir hareket riski var. Bu deste\u011fin alt\u0131na sarkma, teknik projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloya g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 alt\u0131nda **put opsiyonu** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 veya **ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread** (maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put sat\u0131lan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kurulan opsiyon stratejisi) kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu kritik seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle dolar zay\u0131fken, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir olumsuz sinyal olur. Tatil nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacim de ilk hareketi b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir; bu y\u00fczden opsiyonlar **risk y\u00f6netimi** (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama ve belirsizli\u011fi kontrol etme) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha kontroll\u00fc bir yol sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tatil etkisiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likiditede risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fckseldi: petrol 5 dolar gerilerken dolar G10\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bak\u0131r toparlan\u0131yor. Alt\u0131nda 4.500 destek; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 800 dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47333","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47333"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47333\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47333"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47333"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47333"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}