ABD Dolar\u0131 haftaya zay\u0131f ba\u015flad\u0131. Piyasalar, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yak\u0131nda bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131labilece\u011fi haberlerini fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini bozdu, 99,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla yeni \u00e7ok g\u00fcnl\u00fck dipleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7abilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, d\u00fcnyadaki petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir deniz ge\u00e7idi. Bu beklenti petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131yor ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) uzun s\u00fcre \u201ctemkinli\u201d (faiz indiriminde acele etmeyen) duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 gerekece\u011fi beklentisini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD piyasalar\u0131 Pazartesi Gazi\/Kahramanlar G\u00fcn\u00fc (Memorial Day) nedeniyle kapal\u0131yken, odak Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc veri takvimine kay\u0131yor. G\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan verisi Conference Board\u2019un T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni olacak; ard\u0131ndan konut verileri izlenecek. DXY en son 99,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Toparlanma halinde 99,51 (21 May\u0131s) ve ard\u0131ndan 100,64 (31 Mart) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: son 200 g\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat ortalamas\u0131, orta-uzun vadeli y\u00f6n i\u00e7in s\u0131k izlenir) 98,56 seviyesinde; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 97,62 (6 May\u0131s) ile 96,49 (11 \u015eubat) ve 95,55 (27 Ocak) takip ediliyor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: 0-100 aras\u0131 bir g\u00f6stergedir; 50 civar\u0131 dengeli, 70 \u00fczeri \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d, 30 alt\u0131 \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201d olarak yorumlan\u0131r) 53\u2019e yak\u0131n. ADX (Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er; 20 alt\u0131 genelde zay\u0131f trend demektir) ise 18 seviyesinde ve belirgin bir trend olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin konu\u015fmalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Anla\u015fma H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7arsa bu \u00f6nemli olur; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si bu hatta ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu anda en \u00e7ok bu jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131k belirliyor.<\/p>\n
En h\u0131zl\u0131 etki petrolde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (futures: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc i\u00e7eren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) erken i\u015flemlerde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131 ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131. Bu tablo, resmi verilerle de uyumlu: Ge\u00e7en ay T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 endeksi; enflasyonun temel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerinden biri) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019e hafif gerileme g\u00f6sterdi. Bu e\u011filim, Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrek boyunca faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de tatil nedeniyle i\u015flem ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yken, yar\u0131nki veriler \u2014\u00f6zellikle Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni\u2014 i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131yor. Beklenti 103,5. Belirgin bir sapma dolar taraf\u0131nda sert harekete yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu veri, piyasadaki \u201crisk alma\u201d e\u011filimini (risk-on: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi d\u00f6nem) test edecek.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n 99,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inmesiyle DXY \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunda ilk hedef, 98,56\u2019daki kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer \u201cgerilimin azalmas\u0131\u201d (de-escalation: tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi) d\u00f6nemleri, dolarda di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 birka\u00e7 hafta s\u00fcren zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabildi.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6n\u00fcnden emin olmayan ancak sert bir hareket bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in EUR\/USD gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/\u201ccall\u201d hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/\u201cput\u201d alma; ama\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanmak) stratejisi uygulanabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, yar\u0131nki veriler sonras\u0131 oynakl\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015ftan (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f bantta dalgalanmas\u0131) kazan\u00e7 hedefler. ADX\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 trendin zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k hareket i\u00e7in birikim olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, oynakl\u0131k odakl\u0131 i\u015flemler daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar haftaya zay\u0131f ba\u015flad\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fma ihtimali H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle petrol\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131, enflasyon endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131. DXY 99 alt\u0131na indi; g\u00f6zler Sal\u0131 T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni, kritik 98,56 deste\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47332\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}