USD\/CNH, 6,7923\u20136,8033 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k ge\u00e7en seans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan son d\u00f6nemdeki band\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na do\u011fru yakla\u015ft\u0131. Parite 6,7971\u2019den kapanarak %0,05 geriledi. Daha \u00f6nceki y\u00f6nlendirme 6,7920\u20136,8060 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn hareketi 6,7964\u20136,8080 band\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, odak 6,7820\u2019deki ana deste\u011fe (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) \u00e7evrildi; ancak net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (seviyenin alt\u0131na inip kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fma) hen\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadeli diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) 6,7955\u2019te izlenirken, 6,7995\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131lmamas\u0131 gereken seviye oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde daha geni\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7eve, 6,7820\u20136,8220 aras\u0131nda yatay seyir (belirgin y\u00f6n olmadan bant i\u00e7inde hareket) olarak kal\u0131yor. Bu de\u011ferlendirme ilk kez 21 May\u0131s\u2019ta spot 6,8010 seviyesindeyken payla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen, USD\/CNH 6,7820\u2019nin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131p bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kalmad\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa \u201ckonsolidasyon\u201d (dar bantta dengelenme) i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00f6yle bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, dolar\u0131n offshore yuan (\u00c7in anakaras\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasalarda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
USD\/CNH\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemdeki i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 test etti\u011fini ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite 6,7820\u2019deki kritik destek seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor; bu taban\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine (fiyat\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcre a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesi) i\u015faret edebilir. \u015eimdilik 6,7820\u20136,8220 aras\u0131nda bir konsolidasyon faz\u0131nda kal\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Dolar \u00fczerindeki bu bask\u0131da, son verilerin \u00c7in\u2019de Caixin \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n 51,5\u2019e beklenmedik \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi etkili. PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri faaliyette art\u0131\u015f, alt\u0131 daralma) 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalarak fabrikalarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7in ekonomisindeki bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k yuan\u0131 destekliyor ve 6,7820 deste\u011finin test edilmesi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) da g\u00fcnl\u00fck referans kur (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi g\u00fcnl\u00fck orta kur) \u00fczerinden yuan\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise son PCE enflasyon verisi %2,7 ile beklentilere paralel geldi, ancak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor. PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonunun kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131, olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131n \u00e7ok sert d\u00fc\u015fmesini \u015fimdilik engelliyor. \u00c7in\u2019de g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ile ABD\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun \u00e7eki\u015fmesi, pariteyi \u015fimdilik bant i\u00e7inde tutuyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 kur ve faiz gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oynakl\u0131k (fiyat\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki fiili dalgalanma d\u00fczeyi) f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. 6,7800 alt\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n devreye girdi\u011fi seviye), k\u0131sa vadeli ve standart (vanilla; karma\u015f\u0131k olmayan) put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in uygun olabilir. Destek \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsa, \u00f6denen prim (opsiyon bedeli) pozisyondaki azami zarard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadede band\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in ise \u201cout-of-the-money strangle\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkili bir strateji olabilir. Strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ve put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) kapsam\u0131nda, \u00f6rne\u011fin 6,7750 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put ve 6,8250 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call (al\u0131m hakk\u0131) sat\u0131larak konsolidasyondan prim toplanabilir. Ancak bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya\u015fan\u0131rsa risk h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in risk y\u00f6netimi kritik.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak USD\/CNH\u2019de 2023 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi uzun s\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerini \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sert ve y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmalar izledi. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler, bug\u00fcn bant hareketi s\u00fcrse bile oynakl\u0131kta belirgin art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 6,7820\u2019nin kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (h\u0131zl\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olmadan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesi), \u00f6nceki benzer \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmelere paralel \u015fekilde bu t\u00fcr bir hareketi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkatler 6,7820\u2019de: USD\/CNH bant alt\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor. Parite 6,7971\u2019de %0,05 gerilerken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivmesi artt\u0131. 6,7820\u20136,8220 konsolidasyonu s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yuan lehine yeni trend ba\u015flatabilir. \u00c7in PMI g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, PBoC y\u00f6nlendirmesi dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; ABD PCE ise sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc frenliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47331"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47331\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}