Wall Street Journal, arabuluculara dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek anla\u015fman\u0131n sonu\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ivmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Haberde gecikmenin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n **n\u00fckleer program\u0131** (uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme ve n\u00fckleer kapasiteye ili\u015fkin faaliyetler) konusundaki \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyen anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n **finansal rahatlama** talebinden (yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi, dondurulan varl\u0131klara eri\u015fim gibi) kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
WSJ\u2019ye g\u00f6re i\u00e7 politika da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer faaliyetleri s\u00fcrerken finansal bask\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 partisindeki sert kanat isimlerden tepki g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalarda **ABD Dolar Endeksi** (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini takip eden g\u00f6sterge) man\u015fet sonras\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ve 99,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ancak g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 ekside kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Son geli\u015fmeler, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131nda ilerlemenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu durum, n\u00fckleer program ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar (\u00fclkelere uygulanan ekonomik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar) konular\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015fte g\u00f6r\u00fclen anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Yeniden artan gerilim, piyasalara **jeopolitik risk primi** (belirsizlik y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e fiyatlara eklenen ekstra maliyet) ekliyor. **T\u00fcrev** (hisse, petrol gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha y\u00fcksek **volatiliteye** (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara \u00e7ok hassas olan petrol nedeniyle enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. **Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri** (ileride teslim edilecek petrol i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyat belirleyen kontratlar) bu ay %8 y\u00fckseldi ve arz\u0131n aksayabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara kadar yakla\u015ft\u0131. Daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji \u015firketleri ve petrol **ETF\u2019leri**nde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar) **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik, piyasan\u0131n korku g\u00f6stergelerine de yans\u0131yor. **VIX** (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) iki haftada 14\u2019ten 19\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 **hedge** (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in koruma i\u015flemi) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 olarak VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131yor ve **S&P 500\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ile korunma sa\u011fl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 klasik bir **g\u00fcvenli liman** (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. DXY\u2019nin 104,50 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturdu\u011funu, gerilim artarsa daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolarda **uzun pozisyon** (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fla\u015f: WSJ\u2019ye g\u00f6re ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131nda ivme kayb\u0131 n\u00fckleer \u00e7\u0131kmaz ve yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015fetme pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan. Jeopolitik risk primi art\u0131yor; Brent %8 y\u00fckseldi, VIX 14\u2019ten 19\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, DXY g\u00fcvenli liman.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47330","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47330"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47330\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}