USD\/JPY, haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir \u201cbo\u015flukla\u201d (a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden olmas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc dengelendi. ABD Dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi bir ABD-\u0130ran uzla\u015fmas\u0131na do\u011fru ilerleme oldu\u011funa dair haberlerle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Parite 158,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, son bir haftal\u0131k bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00d6nerilen paket, sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131; 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan yeniden ge\u00e7i\u015f imk\u00e2n\u0131 ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n (denizden uygulanan engelleme) kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ise devam edecek.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fetlerin ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi; WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) 7 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inerken, Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 99,00\u2019a do\u011fru gev\u015fedi. Yen belirgin bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sa\u011flayamad\u0131. Enerji maliyetleri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor ve ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Japon ekonomisi, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n normale d\u00f6nmesi zaman alsa bile k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Ba\u015fbakan Sanae Takaichi, temmuz-eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6neminde hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n elektrik ve gaz faturalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in destek a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun 3 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde ek b\u00fct\u00e7eyle finanse edilece\u011fini, yakla\u015f\u0131k 500 milyar yenin de s\u00fcbvansiyonlara (devlet deste\u011fi) ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 160,00 civar\u0131nda \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d riskini (Japon yetkililerin kuru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in piyasaya girip yen almas\u0131) fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Fed-BoJ faiz fark\u0131 da pariteyi genel olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde desteklemeye devam etti.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de mevcut tabloyu bant i\u00e7inde hareket (y\u00fckseli\u015f ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn belirli bir aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ortado\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimali ile kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz farklar\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm var. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair beklentiler k\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; Umman\u2019\u0131n arabuluculuk yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin kritik bir a\u015famaya girdi\u011fi bildiriliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en tankerler i\u00e7in denizcilik risk primleri (sigorta\/ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetlerine eklenen risk bedeli) bu hafta %15 geriledi; bu da iyimserli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fim, yen i\u00e7in kritik bir de\u011fi\u015fken olan petrol\u00fc do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Temmuz vadeli WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (belirli bir tarihte \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) 88,50 dolar civar\u0131nda; ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 95 dolara yak\u0131n zirvelerden belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. 2015\u2019teki n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma m\u00fczakerelerine benzer \u015fekilde, man\u015fet ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131nda sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez dalgalanmalar yaratabiliyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar zay\u0131flasa da yenin g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmakta zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeni Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. Anla\u015fma sa\u011flansa bile, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve tedarik zincirlerinin (\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcretimden teslimata uzanan lojistik a\u011f\u0131) normale d\u00f6nmesi aylar s\u00fcrebilir; bu da Japon ekonomisi i\u00e7in ithalat maliyetlerini y\u00fcksek tutar. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin 3 trilyon yenlik te\u015fvik paketi ge\u00e7ici bir tampon, para birimi i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019deki g\u00fcc\u00fcn temel nedeni para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f olmas\u0131. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi %4,75, Japonya\u2019daki benzer vade %0,30 seviyesinde; aradaki fark 445 baz puan\u0131n (faizde %0,01\u2019lik birim) \u00fczerinde ve son yirmi y\u0131l\u0131n en geni\u015f seviyelerinden biri. Bu fark, yen ta\u015f\u0131maktan (elde tutmaktan) \u00e7ok dolar ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f, 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n Japon yetkililerin m\u00fcdahale tehdidiyle s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Nisan sonundaki h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert yen al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ve 2022\u2019de harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,2 trilyon yenin etkisi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 temkinli tutuyor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) zirvesinden gerilese de h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek; bu da ani bir hareket riskinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ko\u015fullarda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirli bir banttan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen t\u00fcrev stratejiler (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131rsa kazanan strateji) kapsam\u0131nda \u201ciron condor\u201d gibi yap\u0131lar (opsiyonlardan olu\u015fan, fiyat\u0131n belirli aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na oynayan strateji) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; USD\/JPY\u2019nin 158\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri ile psikolojik 160 m\u00fcdahale \u00e7izgisi aras\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde fayda sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 geliri) toplarken, jeopolitik anla\u015fman\u0131n netle\u015fmesi veya merkez bankas\u0131 tonunun de\u011fi\u015fmesiyle olas\u0131 sert k\u0131r\u0131lma riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 158,90\u2019da bantta: ABD-\u0130ran uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131 beklentisi dolar ve petrol\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131. Ancak Fed-BoJ faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor, 160,00\u2019da m\u00fcdahale riski tavan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47327\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}