Sterlin, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin son b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3500 civar\u0131ndaki erken kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. Piyasalar, k\u0131sa vadede bir ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisiyle **risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fcksek** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman yerine daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi ortam) kald\u0131. ABD hisse senetleri yukar\u0131 i\u015faret etti; S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri 7.550 civar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckselirken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,33 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,00 civar\u0131na indi. Hava, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n hafta sonu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve anla\u015fman\u0131n \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde m\u00fczakere edildi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 izledi. Ancak \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri, bir\u00e7ok ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtse de anla\u015fman\u0131n imzaya \u00e7ok yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemedi.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, GBP\/USD 1,3500 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck **\u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama**n\u0131n (EMA: son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) 1,3474 seviyesinin yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. **G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi** (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 52 civar\u0131nda seyretti. 1,3612 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 1,3700\u2019e do\u011fru hareketi g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da, paritenin 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA \u00fczerinde tutunamamas\u0131 1,3400\u2019e \u00e7ekilme riski do\u011furur; bunun alt\u0131na inilmesi 18 May\u0131s dip seviyesi 1,3302\u2019yi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,2850 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, piyasadaki genel **risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131** yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu iyimserlik, ABD-\u00c7in teknoloji ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ilerleme olabilece\u011fine dair haberlerden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu olumlu hava, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek getiri arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda hafif geri \u00e7ekilmeye neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri 6.250 civar\u0131nda %0,8 y\u00fckseliyor; bu, hisse senetlerine talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Buna paralel olarak, haftalard\u0131r 103 civar\u0131nda seyreden ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 102,50 civar\u0131nda. Bu, \u015fimdilik paran\u0131n dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclen taraf\u0131na de\u011fil, daha riskli alanlara kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ticaret Bakan\u0131 anla\u015fman\u0131n \u201cyak\u0131n\u201d oldu\u011funu ima ederken, Pekin\u2019den gelen resmi mesajlar daha temkinli. Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc ilerleme oldu\u011funu, ancak \u201ckilit fikri m\u00fclkiyet ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli farklar s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Bu, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n mevcut havay\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca tersine \u00e7evirebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu temkinli iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler bozulursa zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. 1,3000\u2019e do\u011fru harekete oynayan bir **bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi** (bull call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p-satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131, ge\u00e7en haftaki \u0130ngiltere enflasyon verileri de destekledi: man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (CPI) %1,9\u2019a gerileyerek \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hedefinin alt\u0131na indi. Bu, ileride faiz indirimi sinyali olabilir; ancak piyasa \u015fimdilik bunu \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin **yumu\u015fak ini\u015f** (sert daralma olmadan enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi) ihtimali olarak okuyor. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri de iyiyse, para birimi faiz indirimi d\u00f6neminin ilk safhas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenebiliyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019y\u0131 yeniden kazand\u0131; bu seviye \u015fu anda 1,2810. Bu, k\u0131sa vadeli ivmenin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bir sonraki diren\u00e7 1,2920 civar\u0131nda izleniyor; bu seviye, bu \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015flar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131yd\u0131. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flanamazsa 1,2750 civar\u0131ndaki destek g\u00fcndeme gelir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa **volatilitesi** (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) d\u00fc\u015ferken, **g\u00fcvenli liman para birimleri**nde opsiyon kullanarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir **korunma** (hedge: ters hareket riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) f\u0131rsat\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Japon Yeni\u2019nde **z\u0131mni volatilite** (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) bir y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Bu durum, USD\/JPY\u2019de **sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131**n\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n aniden bozulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu, jeopolitik hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6ye daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir tampon sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 Sterlin\u2019i ayakta tutuyor: GBP\/USD 1,3500 civar\u0131nda, DXY geriliyor. ABD\u2013\u0130ran\/\u00c7in haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kritik. 1,3612 diren\u00e7; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,3700. EMA alt\u0131 1,3400\u20131,3302 risk. Opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47323"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47323\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}