Hindistan rupisi, USD\/INR paritesi d\u00f6rt seansl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc 95,20 civar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yarak yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inerken g\u00fcne daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131. Destek, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda yeni ad\u0131mlar ataca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden ve ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fma ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle petrolde g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerindeki gerilemeden geldi. Ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131y\u0131 \u00fclkelerinin meselesi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesi sonras\u0131 petrol yeniden y\u00fckseldi. RBI\u2019nin rezerv birikiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k 700 milyar dolar oldu\u011fu belirtilirken, piyasa duru\u015funu yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n (FII) d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da net sat\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131 \u015fekillendirdi; toplam \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 10.386,52 crore rupi oldu.<\/p>\n
Petroldeki sert dalgalanma ana belirleyici olmaya devam etti: WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol), %6\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 89,50 dolara indikten sonra 91,60 dolar civar\u0131na toparland\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,00 civar\u0131na geriledi. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemlerden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan faiz beklentisi), bu y\u0131l Fed\u2019in en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %57\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bu oran %67 idi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA: son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend ortalamas\u0131) olan 95,3719 yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrederken, RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 53 civar\u0131nda. 95,00 alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 94,00\u2019\u00fc g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; 96,37 \u00fczeri hareket ise 97,00\u2019i yeniden hedef haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131, rupide a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama niyetini net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum USD\/INR paritesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u201ctavan\u201d etkisi yarat\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n son a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervi (m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in biriken d\u00f6viz stoku) 698 milyar dolar seviyesinde; bu, spek\u00fclatif hareketlere (k\u0131sa vadeli, h\u0131zl\u0131 kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemler) kar\u015f\u0131 piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etmek i\u00e7in yeterli g\u00fcce i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon riskini satmak (kurun y\u00fckselmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131p prim toplamak) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; 97,00 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Petroldeki dalgalanma nedeniyle temkinli kalmak gerekiyor; ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair ilk iyimserlik zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor ve fiyatlar\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine toparlanmas\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k (\u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve gelir-gider dengesindeki a\u00e7\u0131k) \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Enerji piyasas\u0131ndaki bu belirsizlik, USD\/INR\u2019de 95,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na do\u011fru rupinin belirgin de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131 unsuru: Sadece d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnde hisselerden 10.300 crore rupinin \u00fczerinde para \u00e7ekildi. Son saklama kurulu\u015fu verilerine g\u00f6re bu ayki FII sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Ekim 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye y\u00f6neliyor; bu e\u011filim \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na dair endi\u015feleri yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, USD\/INR\u2019de kurun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gitmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan do\u011fal bir \u201ctaban\u201d olu\u015fabilir ve rupi kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t sinyaller nedeniyle, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kla (fiyat\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi) birlikte yatay bantta seyir senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bir ayl\u0131k USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) %5,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu ortamda 94,50 ve 96,50 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak (iki farkl\u0131 seviyede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p prim toplamak) zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeye (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) oynayan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak 96,50 \u00fczerindeki seviyelerde call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (\u00fcst \u00fcste iki al\u0131m opsiyonu ile risk s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; RBI\u2019nin duru\u015fu sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi daha az olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,00 civar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, rupiye ge\u00e7ici destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak USD\/INR\u2019nin 95,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde inememesi, alttaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde pozisyon ayarlamak i\u00e7in bu seviye kritik bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olarak izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi g\u00fc\u00e7lense de USD\/INR 95,20 ile iki haftan\u0131n dibinde: petrol dalgal\u0131, FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 10.386 crore. RBI\u2019nin 698 milyar $ rezervi tavan yarat\u0131yor; 95,00 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 94,00, 96,37 \u00fcst\u00fc 97,00.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47319\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}