EUR\/USD Jeopolitik Geli\u015fmeler ve Kritik Veriler \u00d6ncesinde Yatay Seyrediyor<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc fazla de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Parite, ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 1,1575\u2019ten toparland\u0131 ancak \u00f6nceki band\u0131n \u00fcst k\u0131sm\u0131 olan 1,1660-1,1675 b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Tatil nedeniyle hacmin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u015flemlerde 1,1650 alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Risk alma iste\u011fi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla desteklendi; ancak tablo \u015fartlara ba\u011fl\u0131 kald\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019la anla\u015fman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi fakat herhangi bir anla\u015fma imzalanana kadar ABD ordusunun H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ablukay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, diplomasiye her f\u0131rsat\u0131n verilece\u011fini belirtirken \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi ve Bo\u011faz \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn k\u0131y\u0131da\u015f \u00fclkelere ait oldu\u011funu yineledi. ABD piyasalar\u0131 Anma G\u00fcn\u00fc (Memorial Day) nedeniyle kapal\u0131yken, bu hafta oda\u011fa \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) yerle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan EUR\/USD 1,1644 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve momentum (fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) artsa da ge\u00e7en haftaki band\u0131n i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. 4 saatlik RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131, y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e al\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131 artar) 58 civar\u0131nda seyrederken MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama Iraksama; trend ve y\u00f6n g\u00f6stergesi) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fcyd\u00fc; ye\u015fil histogram \u00e7ubuklar\u0131 geni\u015fledi. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) 1,1660\u2019ta, ard\u0131ndan 14 May\u0131s zirvesi olan 1,1720 yak\u0131n\u0131nda ve may\u0131s tepesinde 1,1796\u2019da bulunuyor. Destek (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekette tutunma seviyesi) 21 May\u0131s dibi 1,1775 olarak not edildi; bunun alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m (seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) nisan dipleri olan 1,1505-1,1525 band\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. 25 May\u0131s 10:22 GMT tarihli d\u00fczeltmede referans verilen \u0130ran bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcncellendi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum opsiyon primlerini (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor ve oynakl\u0131k (volatilite; fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma derecesi) temelli stratejileri daha cazip hale getiriyor. Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index\u2019in (Euro opsiyonlar\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) son d\u00f6nemde 6,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretmesi, tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyeye i\u015faret ediyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ani fiyat hareketi beklemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam\u0131n, yatay seyirden veya kademeli bir hareketten (yava\u015f ve istikrarl\u0131 y\u00f6n) kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejilere uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE verisi, hareketi tetikleyebilecek \u00f6nemli bir risk ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131. Son ABD enflasyon verileri, enflasyonun Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) g\u00f6sterdi; bu nedenle y\u00fcksek bir PCE, dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip pariteyi 1,1575 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na itebilir. Erken haziranda vadesi dolan put opsiyonlar\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu senaryoya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde net bir ilerleme ya da Lagarde\u2019\u0131n beklenenden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir ton kullanmas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\/para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f sinyali) dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Mevcut opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken, 1,1675 direncinin \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131da oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u015fu an kazan\u00e7ta olmayan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrprize d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma yolu sunar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u0131r\u0131lma ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7 etkisi (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck maliyetle b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri potansiyeli) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD jeopolitik man\u015fetler ve kritik ECB\/PCE \u00f6ncesi dar bantta: 1,1650 alt\u0131nda tutunuyor. Opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dipte, primler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. 1,1660-1,1675 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa y\u00fckseli\u015f; 1,1575 alt\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47318\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}