{"id":47317,"date":"2026-05-25T16:19:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T16:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-getiri-farki-dolari-desteklerken-15934-zirvesinden-geri-cekildi-ancak-momentum-zayifliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T16:19:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T16:19:15","slug":"usd-jpy-getiri-farki-dolari-desteklerken-15934-zirvesinden-geri-cekildi-ancak-momentum-zayifliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-getiri-farki-dolari-desteklerken-15934-zirvesinden-geri-cekildi-ancak-momentum-zayifliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Getiri Fark\u0131 Dolar\u0131 Desteklerken 159,34 Zirvesinden Geri \u00c7ekildi; Ancak Momentum Zay\u0131fl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY, 159,19\u2019daki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 159,34\u2019\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 158,96\u2019da bitirdi (+%0,03). \u00d6nceki y\u00f6nlendirme 158,80\u2013159,25 band\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu, ancak parite 158,87\/159,23 gibi daha dar bir aral\u0131kta kald\u0131; ard\u0131ndan 159,19\u2019da (+%0,14) kapand\u0131ktan sonra sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Geri \u00e7ekilme a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmasa da parite 158,70\u2019i test edebilir; bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareketin olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, 158,40\u2019\u0131n ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli diren\u00e7 159,05 ve 159,25 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde duru\u015f pozitif kal\u0131yor, ancak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Analiz, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc pozitiften n\u00f6tre \u00e7evirecek \u201ckilit seviye\u201d olarak 158,40\u2019\u0131 (pivot: gidi\u015fat\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiren e\u015fik seviye) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Yukar\u0131da 159,45 \u00fczeri bir atak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015flerin 2024 zirvesi 162,00\u2019\u0131 zorlamas\u0131 beklenmiyor. 21 May\u0131s\u2019ta spot (anl\u0131k kur) 158,85 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n<h3>Makro Etkenler ve Politika Fark\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131. May\u0131s 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ABD enflasyon verisi %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Bu, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirmeyece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok yava\u015f ataca\u011f\u0131 sinyalini veriyor. Bu \u201cpolitika fark\u0131\u201d (iki \u00fclkenin faiz ve para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma) dolar lehine bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<p>USD\/JPY\u2019de trend pozitif kalsa da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ckopu\u015f\u201d (breakout: fiyat\u0131n bant\/diren\u00e7 \u00fcst\u00fcne kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. \u0130zlenen ana seviye 158,40 deste\u011fi; parite bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu korunuyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Japon yetkililerin, kur 160,00\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d (kurda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yoluyla do\u011frudan etki) konusundaki s\u00f6ylemleri sertle\u015fti; bu da spek\u00fclatif al\u0131mlar\u0131 do\u011fal olarak yava\u015flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h3>Opsiyon Stratejileri ve \u0130\u015flem Band\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki-\u00fc\u00e7 haftada vadesi dolacak ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 158,40 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda olan \u201cpara d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131\u201dn\u0131n (out-of-the-money: mevcut kura g\u00f6re hemen kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamayan; prim: opsiyonu satan\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) sat\u0131larak prim toplanmas\u0131n\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek haline getirebilir. Daha kontroll\u00fc risk i\u00e7in \u201cbo\u011fa put spread\u201d (s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji: bir put sat\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put sat\u0131n almak) uygulanabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin 158,50 put sat\u0131p 157,50 put almak. Bu strateji, vade sonunda USD\/JPY 158,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130vmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riski nedeniyle, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn \u015fimdilik 159,45\u2013160,00 b\u00f6lgesinde s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu da 160,50 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda \u201ccall spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla kurulan, getirisi ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecek bir i\u015flem haline getiriyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mlar birlikte kullan\u0131l\u0131rsa, parite b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok ya\u015famaz ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 158,40\u2013160,50 band\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa bant i\u00e7i getiri hedefleyen bir yap\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar\/yen geri \u00e7ekilse de trend pozitif: 158,40 pivot destek, 159,05\u2013159,25 diren\u00e7. Faiz fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 desteklerken ivme zay\u0131f; 159,45\u2013160,00 tavan. Opsiyonda OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\/call spread ile bant getirisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47317\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}