ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin y\u00fckselmesi ve Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, Endonezya rupisi (IDR), Filipin pesosu (PHP) ve Hindistan rupisi (INR) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir rahatlama ise ancak jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. Olas\u0131 bir tetikleyici, ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fi g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alan bir anla\u015fma olabilir. Bu, enerji piyasas\u0131ndaki risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve dolar talebindeki genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Endonezya\u2019da USD\/IDR paritesi, b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesindeki bozulma ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini koruyor; ancak piyasada tek tarafa y\u0131\u011f\u0131lma (pozisyonlar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde birikmesi) geri \u00e7ekilme pay\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Rupi, reel efektif kur (REER: \u00fclkenin para biriminin, ticaret yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re enflasyon farklar\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131narak hesaplanan g\u00f6reli de\u011feri) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcne g\u00f6re ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca y\u00fcksek faizli SRBI enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131 (Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli ve getirisi y\u00fcksek menkul k\u0131ymetler) mevcut risk primini (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n belirsizlik i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) k\u0131smen telafi ediyor. Filipinler\u2019de pesonun k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon y\u00fckselirken BSP politika faizinin %4,50\u2019de kalmas\u0131yla art\u0131yor; bu da risk primlerine kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tampon anlam\u0131na geliyor. Hindistan\u2019da ise \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 gerilim s\u00fcrer ve petrol 100 dolar\/varil \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa USD\/INR paritesi 100,00 seviyesine do\u011fru gidebilir; ancak RBI\u2019nin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesi ve olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 d\u00f6nemsel destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda IDR, PHP ve INR gibi Asya para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvil faizinin %5,1\u2019de kalmas\u0131 ve Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bu \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in olumsuz bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyri, DXY endeksinin (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 107,50 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla belirginle\u015fiyor; temel e\u011filim bu y\u00f6nde.<\/p>\n
Filipin pesosu daha hassas g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Nisan 2026 enflasyonu %5,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizi %4,50\u2019de kald\u0131. Bu tablo, reel faizin (faiz oran\u0131ndan enflasyonun \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131yla bulunan, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n \u201cger\u00e7ek getirisi\u201d) negatif oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor ve pesoyu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, 59,20 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 USD\/PHP y\u00fckseli\u015fine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in NDF (teslimats\u0131z vadeli i\u015flem: vade sonunda d\u00f6viz teslimi yerine fark\u0131n nakit olarak \u00f6dendi\u011fi vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan rupisinde USD\/INR\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; parite 85,50 civar\u0131nda. Hindistan petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor. Petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar\/varil \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 pariteyi 87,00\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu harekete kar\u015f\u0131, 3 ay vadeli \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyattan daha uzakta, bug\u00fcn kullan\u0131lsa k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) USD\/INR al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan d\u00f6viz alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Endonezya rupisinde daha temkinliyiz; USD\/IDR paritesi teknik g\u00f6stergelerde (fiyat grafikleri ve istatistiksel sinyaller) 16.550 civar\u0131nda \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f alg\u0131 s\u00fcrse de rupi REER baz\u0131nda ucuz ve Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fcksek getirili SRBI ara\u00e7lar\u0131 bir miktar destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Her iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynayan strateji) ile i\u015flem yapmak; olumlu bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sert ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in dengeleme i\u015flemi) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Ana de\u011fi\u015fken Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda gerilimin do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesi, bu para birimlerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu t\u00fcr bir haber gelene kadar, IDR, PHP ve INR\u2019de dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi daha olas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri ve 105$ Brent, IDR-PHP-INR\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; DXY g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Peso negatif reel faizle k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Rupi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m ama ucuz. Kal\u0131c\u0131 rahatlama H\u00fcrm\u00fcz anla\u015fmas\u0131na bak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}