Brown Brothers Harriman, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY – dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) k\u0131sa vadede yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131ld\u0131r bulundu\u011fu 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131n\u0131n (belirli aral\u0131kta dalgalanma) \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Buna g\u00f6re ABD ekonomisi di\u011fer \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 iyile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (piyasalarda daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme) dolar \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 dengeleyebilir. Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow modeli (mevcut verilerle b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini yapan takip arac\u0131) 2. \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f oran) %4,3; 1. \u00e7eyrekte ise %2,0 olarak izliyor. May\u0131s PMI verileri (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; ekonomik faaliyetin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan anket) ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme avantaj\u0131n\u0131n benzer ekonomilere g\u00f6re a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan PCE verisinde (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat g\u00f6stergesi; Fed\u2019in en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerinden biri). Man\u015fet PCE\u2019nin (genel endeks) ayl\u0131k %0,5 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8; Mart\u2019ta ise ayl\u0131k %0,7 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7, daha kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 ile Mart\u2019la ayn\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Her iki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm de FOMC\u2019nin (Fed\u2019in faiz karar organ\u0131) 2026 enflasyon tahmini olan %2,7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor; bu da Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. Alternatif g\u00f6stergeler olarak Dallas Fed\u2019in k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama PCE\u2019si ve Cleveland Fed\u2019in %16 k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama T\u00dcFE\u2019si (u\u00e7 fiyat hareketlerini \u201ck\u0131rparak\u201d daha dengeli e\u011filim \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergeler) an\u0131l\u0131yor; ikisi de \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin alt\u0131nda. Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ise faizleri sabit tutmaya i\u015faret ederken, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fmezse yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda DXY\u2019nin 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyoruz. ABD ekonomisi benzer \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan ara\u00e7larla i\u015flem yapanlar) Euro ve Yen gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finden yararlanacak pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow modeli bu \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %4,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f. Son veriler de bunu destekliyor: S&P Global ABD Bile\u015fik PMI May\u0131s\u2019ta 54,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak iki y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI (\u00f6n veri) ise daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir seviye olan 52,3\u2019te kald\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinde temel etkenlerden biri.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon ana belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor ve Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Nisan T\u00dcFE raporu \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,6 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. A\u00e7\u0131klanacak PCE verisinin de bu e\u011filimi teyit etmesi bekleniyor. Enflasyon Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 politikas\u0131 dolar i\u00e7in destek olmaya devam edebilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, UUP gibi dolar odakl\u0131 borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF – borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 (strike; opsiyonda hak fiyat\u0131) 100,00 seviyesinin biraz \u00fczerine koymay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015flamayan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da bu y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 (maksimum kayb\u0131 \u00f6nceden belli) \u015fekilde dolar\u0131n olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Bir di\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131m, Euro\u2019yu dolara kar\u015f\u0131 satmak olabilir; vadeli kontratlarla (futures; ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) ya da EUR\/USD paritesinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) alarak. Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (interest rate differential; iki b\u00f6lge aras\u0131ndaki faiz makas\u0131) \u201cdaha s\u0131k\u0131\u201d bir Fed ile daha temkinli bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Tarihsel olarak DXY bir y\u0131l s\u00fcren yatay seyrin (konsolidasyon; dar aral\u0131kta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma) d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sonraki hareket \u00e7o\u011fu zaman h\u0131zl\u0131 ve belirgin olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY\u2019de kritik e\u015fik: BBH, ABD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fuyla endeksin 96-100 band\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p 100 \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc test edebilece\u011fini, Per\u015fembe PCE\u2019nin y\u00f6n tayin edece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47315\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}