EUR\/CAD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde art arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 1,6080 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kanada Dolar\u0131 (CAD), petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeyle birlikte zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ham petrol piyasas\u0131nda arz endi\u015felerinin azalmas\u0131 bu hareketi destekledi. Bunun arkas\u0131nda, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair iyimserlik vard\u0131. Bu durum, emtiaya (\u00f6zellikle petrole) ba\u011fl\u0131 para birimi olan CAD i\u00e7in deste\u011fi azaltt\u0131. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019ye en b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 da etkiyi b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re ABD ve \u0130ran, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erecek bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131. Anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6\u015fedi\u011fi may\u0131nlar\u0131n temizlenmesi; kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor. Piyasalar\u0131n dikkati ayr\u0131ca Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinin yakla\u015fan konu\u015fmalar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. ECB, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin bu y\u0131l\u0131n enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) tahminlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi ve faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gerek\u00e7esini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmu\u015ftu. Politika tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, haziran hamlesine ve ECB\u2019nin temmuz i\u00e7in ek \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d (faizi art\u0131rma ya da para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 hale getirme) sinyali verip vermeyece\u011fine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir rota; ECB ise orta vadede %2 enflasyon hedefini koruyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/CAD\u2019de 1,6080 civar\u0131nda izlenen y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ana etken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken zorlanan Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k. Bu nedenle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi seviye) 1,6150 ve 1,6200 civar\u0131nda olan ve vadesi (opsiyonun sona erdi\u011fi tarih) haziran sonu veya temmuz olan EUR\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Al\u0131m opsiyonu, kur belirli bir seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen bir s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dikkat \u00e7ekici oldu. WTI ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) ge\u00e7en ay varil ba\u015f\u0131na 84 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden 78 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Bu durum Kanada\u2019y\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) en g\u00fcncel verilerine g\u00f6re Kanada, ABD\u2019ye g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,2 milyon varil ihra\u00e7 ediyor. Bu \u201ctemel\u201d (makro ve ticaret kaynakl\u0131) bask\u0131n\u0131n, jeopolitik tablo de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e CAD \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrmesi beklenir.<\/p>\n
\u0130zledi\u011fimiz en \u00f6nemli tetikleyici (piyasay\u0131 h\u0131zla hareket ettirebilecek geli\u015fme) olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itebilir ve EUR\/CAD\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Sonucun \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d niteli\u011fi (ikili\/binary sonu\u00e7), pariteyi man\u015fetlere \u00e7ok hassas hale getiriyor; bu da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki gerilim, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda anl\u0131k ve sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. 2019\u2019daki tanker olaylar\u0131nda, Brent (Avrupa\/uluslararas\u0131 referans petrol\u00fc) arz endi\u015feleriyle bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 benzer bir reaksiyonu tetikleyebilir; bu da CAD\u2019i h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip EUR\/CAD\u2019deki bu y\u00fckseli\u015fi geri \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin Euro taraf\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin haziranda beklenen faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, Euro i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Ba\u015fkan Lagarde\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015fan konu\u015fmas\u0131, haziran sonras\u0131na dair yol haritas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. \u201c\u015eahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz mesaj\u0131 veren) bir ton, Euro\u2019nun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in ek bir tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda ana stratejimiz, riski \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak temkinli iyimser bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u201cbull call spread\u201d ile yans\u0131tmak. Bu yap\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir; b\u00f6ylece ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyeti d\u00fc\u015fer. Kur, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma ve petrol arz\u0131 endi\u015felerinin azalmas\u0131yla kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse bu pozisyon kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, CAD zay\u0131fl\u0131yor: EUR\/CAD 1,6080\u2019de d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fte. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz etkisi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131 Euro\u2019yu destekler; 1,6150-1,6200 call\/bull spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47313\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}