ING, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) 27 May\u0131s\u2019ta faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyip **\u015fahin** (faiz indirimi yerine gerekirse faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yak\u0131n) bir mesaj vermesini bekliyor. Banka, piyasada **s\u00fcrpriz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131** ihtimalinin yeterince fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ING, g\u00fcncellenecek tahminlerin 3. \u00e7eyrekten itibaren daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na (faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi) i\u015faret edece\u011fini, Temmuz\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak **iki kez 25 baz puan** (0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019da toplam **50 baz puanl\u0131k** ek art\u0131\u015f bekliyor ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelere hassas oldu\u011funu vurguluyor. NZD\u2019nin (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131) y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla i\u00e7eriden (\u00fclke i\u00e7i verilerden) de\u011fil, d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmelerden etkilendi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 Temmuz i\u00e7in **21 baz puan**, y\u0131l sonuna kadar toplam **75 baz puan** art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; ING, RBNZ ileti\u015fiminin bu duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Revize tahminler bu patikay\u0131 desteklerse, y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k **\u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131** beklentisi korunabilir. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi (gerilimin azalmas\u0131) durumunda bile, beklentilerin **iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131na** \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir neden g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. ING\u2019nin NZD\/USD g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 0,60 \u00fczerinin yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bunun ko\u015fullar\u0131 olarak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de g\u00f6rece sakin bir tablo, y\u0131l sonuna kadar iki RBNZ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Fed\u2019den bir faiz indirimi varsay\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin 27 May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ana risk, piyasan\u0131n tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir **s\u00fcrpriz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131**. En olas\u0131 senaryo faizlerin sabit kal\u0131p \u015fahin mesaj verilmesi olsa da, beklenmedik bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u201cKiwi\u201dde (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131) h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yaratabilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte RBNZ\u2019nin s\u00fcrpriz kararlar\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin Nisan 2023\u2019teki ad\u0131m, NZD\/USD\u2019nin bir g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselmesine neden olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik **opsiyon piyasas\u0131na** (belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yans\u0131yor. NZD\u2019de bir haftal\u0131k **\u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, beklenen dalgalanma) %12,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek son d\u00f6nemdeki %9,8 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 sert hareketten iki y\u00f6nde de yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin **straddle** (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) stratejisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Alternatif olarak, bankan\u0131n beklenen \u201c\u015fahin sabit\u201d karar\u0131yla piyasalar\u0131n sakinle\u015fece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in **volatilite satmak** (opsiyon satarak prim toplamak; dalgalanma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek) ilgi \u00e7ekici olabilir.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin bu toplant\u0131da Temmuz i\u00e7in net bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali vermesi bekleniyor. Bunu destekleyen unsurlar, enflasyonun %4,2 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,9 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesi. **Swap piyasas\u0131** (belirli bir vade boyunca sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi piyasa) Temmuz i\u00e7in \u015fimdiden **21 baz puan** fiyatl\u0131yor; toplant\u0131 metni sonras\u0131 bunun tamamen fiyatlanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, **faiz swaplar\u0131** \u00fczerinden ya da **NZD vadeli i\u015flemleri** (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) alarak yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
RBNZ d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki tarafta, NZD\u2019nin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve ABD ile para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131 belirleyecek. RBNZ\u2019nin bu y\u0131l en az iki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131 beklenirken, **Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri** (piyasan\u0131n Fed faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar Fed\u2019den faiz indirimi ihtimalini %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu fark, ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 NZD lehine bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBNZ 27 May\u0131s\u2019ta faizi sabit tutsa bile \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tonla piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir; ING, s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. Temmuz\u2019dan iki 25 bp, 2026\u2019da ek 50 bp; NZD\u2019de sert hareket ve y\u00fckselen volatilite riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47312\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}