\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. USD\/CHF, ge\u00e7en hafta 0,7900\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,7820\u2019nin alt\u0131na inerek 11 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini test etti. Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik umutlar\u0131n ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisinin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) art\u0131rmas\u0131yla geldi. Bat\u0131\u2019daki bir\u00e7ok piyasan\u0131n banka tatili nedeniyle kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 ise likiditeyi (piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapman\u0131n kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, ABD\u2019nin bo\u011fazdaki ablukay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da yapt\u0131 ve anla\u015fma i\u00e7in acele etmedi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n sona erdirilmesi i\u00e7in m\u00fczakere y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak temel anla\u015fmazl\u0131k alanlar\u0131ndan biri olan n\u00fckleer konular\u0131 \u201c\u015fu anda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini\u201d bildirdi. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6netiminin \u201ck\u0131y\u0131da\u015f \u00fclkelere\u201d ait oldu\u011funu belirtti. ABD piyasalar\u0131 Anma G\u00fcn\u00fc (Memorial Day) nedeniyle kapal\u0131yken, odak nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in en yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinden biri) \u00e7evrildi. Son d\u00f6nemde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon sinyalleri ve istihdam piyasas\u0131nda dengelenme, faiz beklentilerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Piyasalar 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran, 28 \u015eubat\u2019taki ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde beklenen bir veya iki ek faiz indirimi beklentisiyle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,7820\u2019nin alt\u0131na inmesi, olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Bu iyimserlik k\u0131r\u0131lgan; m\u00fczakerelerde olas\u0131 bir olumsuzluk dolar\u0131n son kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Bu belirsizlik, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda (dayanak varl\u0131ktan t\u00fcretilen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: USD\/CHF\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasada beklenen dalgalanma) %8,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sert bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sinyaller nedeniyle belirli bir y\u00f6n yerine oynakl\u0131k i\u015flemine odaklanmak daha anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bar\u0131\u015f umutlar\u0131n\u0131n dolara getirdi\u011fi k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, hafta i\u00e7inde gelecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileriyle tamamen da\u011f\u0131t\u0131labilir. Bu nedenle dolarda \u201cuzun strangle\u201d gibi stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden \u00e7ok, vade dolmadan \u00f6nce sert bir hareket olmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131 destekleyen \u00f6nemli unsur, para politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim. Piyasa art\u0131k bu y\u0131l Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, \u015fubat \u00f6ncesinde beklenen faiz indirimlerine k\u0131yasla keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI; t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) verisinde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,9 ile y\u00fcksek kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine dayanak sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi belirleyici olacak. Beklentiden y\u00fcksek enflasyon, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dair fiyatlamalar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek dolar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Tersine, zay\u0131f bir veri dolar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 uzatabilir; bu nedenle veri, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz hamle: \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, USD\/CHF 0,7820 alt\u0131na sarkarak 11 g\u00fcn\u00fcn dibini test etti. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f umudu risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131; PCE ve Fed beklentileri belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47309\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}