Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri, Pazartesi Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %0,82 y\u00fckselerek 50.100\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,93 art\u0131\u015fla 7.550\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri ise %1,38 y\u00fckselerek 29.950\u2019nin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. ABD\u2019de Memorial Day (Resmi Tatil) nedeniyle nakit piyasalar kapal\u0131 oldu\u011fundan i\u015flem hacimlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Y\u00fckseli\u015f, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 riskini azaltmas\u0131yla geldi.<\/p>\n
Axios, iki taraf\u0131n 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lacak, \u0130ran deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 temizleyerek gemi trafi\u011finin serbest\u00e7e ilerlemesini sa\u011flayacak; kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131racak. Reuters ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim haber ajans\u0131na dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, Washington\u2019un dondurulmu\u015f \u0130ran varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin maddeleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 engelledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio da New York Times\u2019a, kapsaml\u0131 bir n\u00fckleer anla\u015fman\u0131n aceleye getirilemeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Faiz beklentileri enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyona duyarl\u0131 kalmaya devam etti: CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %41,0 seviyesinde. Ge\u00e7en hafta Dow %2,13, S&P 500 %0,88, Nasdaq 100 ise %0,45 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi PCE, GSYH ve gelir-harcama verileri ile Zscaler, Salesforce ve Dell Technologies bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair iyimserlikle piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) azal\u0131yor. VIX (piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) son d\u00f6nemde 14\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na geriledi. Bu, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nceki 18 seviyelerine g\u00f6re belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu ortamda, opsiyon sat\u0131p prim (opsiyonu satan\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplama fikri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fman\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck etkisinin enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini etkiliyor. Bu nedenle, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmesine oynayan stratejiler g\u00fcndemde: Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) XLE gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak veya yak\u0131t maliyeti d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde genelde olumlu etkilenen ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k hisselerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirmek gibi. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 2019\u2019da gerilimin ge\u00e7ici olarak azalmas\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi, bu b\u00f6lgede k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli rahatlamalar petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert ama k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik geli\u015fme, piyasalar\u0131n endi\u015fe duydu\u011fu enflasyon hik\u00e2yesini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Son PCE (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131) fiyat endeksi %3,1 ile Fed\u2019i temkinli tutuyor. Ancak enerji maliyetlerinde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Bu da faiz hareketlerine hassas endekslerde (faiz de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden daha \u00e7ok etkilenen) Nasdaq 100 gibi alanlarda al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n anla\u015fma hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmedi; her iki taraftan da s\u00fcreci zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar oldu\u011funa dair haberler var. Bu belirsizli\u011fi y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in S&P 500\u2019de \u201czararda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan, \u015fimdilik k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) daha ucuz sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma (hedge: olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Anla\u015fma bozulursa, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) geri d\u00f6nmesi ve bu koruman\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 beklenir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umudu Wall Street vadeli i\u015flemlerini ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: Dow 50.100\u2019e, S&P 7.550\u2019ye, Nasdaq 29.950\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. VIX 14 alt\u0131na indi; petrol, enflasyon ve Fed faiz beklentileri izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47307","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47307"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47307\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}